The focus of Hong Kong stocks yesterday was not on the periphery nor on the economy, but on the situation in Taiwan. The US Congressional Speaker Pelosi, who is over 80 years old, played the game of rushing to the cliff and took advantage of the trip to Asia to play the card of Taiwan. As the incident became fierce, whoever gave in? Just being a bad boy, investors were shocked and fired. The Hang Seng Index once fell by more than 600 points. Although the decline narrowed at the close, the last 20,000 points were all lost.
MIRROR-related stocks briefly fell
Pelosi went to Asia to play the Taiwan card, which aroused strong reactions from the mainland. The Central Tea Friends wondered if this was the plan of the US government or Pelosi’s personal behavior. Judging from a politician who is already the oldest, it is not ruled out that she took a risk this time is her subjective idea. Anyway, her time is limited, what is the cost of playing? However, even if this move comes from personal behavior, it represents the general climate of American politics. Without such a general climate, politicians would not have come up with such a method to steal the limelight. By the same token, with this precedent, it exacerbates the ethos that is characteristic of populism. Just like the social movement in Hong Kong, when the fire started on the streets, even if someone sees that the trend is wrong, it may not be able to stop.
From the development of the political climate in the United States, the Democratic Party proposed the strategy of returning to Asia during the Obama era. At the beginning, Zhong was relatively civilized and rational. When the Republican President Trump was in power, he served food in a rude way. Now it is Biden’s turn to take office. It is a little gentle, but the essence has not changed, and it also tests the bottom line of “one China”. This gameplay is like asking China to drive to the cliff together to see who falls down the mountain in the end. In this sense, the geopolitical risk of the investment market in the future is far more likely to rise than to fall. When the Financial Secretary Chen Maobo talked regarding this year’s economy two days ago, he emphasized the tension between China and the United States and the consideration of financial security. It is estimated that in the rest of this year, these negative factors will not easily dissipate.
Playing the Taiwan card, the United States ostensibly supports Taiwan independence or the Tsai Ing-wen government, but it actually puts Taiwan in power. With the emergence of military crises at any time, the stock price of TSMC, which is known as the guardian of Taiwan’s sacred mountain, cannot escape the pressure, falling more than 2%. TSMC fell from a high of NT$680 in January this year to NT$492 yesterday, down 13%. The chairman of TSMC claimed that the company might not be seized by force, just like a night walker whistling to embolden himself. The shock caused by Pelosi this time is likely to make Taiwan more targeted by the mainland.
Another person who paid money was Hong Kong stock investors. Since Pelosi left the Philippines following the market closed, investors first sold to avoid safety. The three major Hong Kong stock indexes were almost all out of stock, and the Hang Seng Index closed down 476 points. It was reported at 19,689 points, a two-and-a-half-month low, and the turnover increased to 118 billion yuan. The “stock king” Tencent (700) once fell below the bottom of the mid-March stock market crash to a low of 288 yuan, and the closing decline narrowed to 1.5% at 295 yuan; Alibaba (9988) plunged 2.9% to close at 87.05 yuan.
Among the blue chips, only Techno (669) rose and closed slightly up 0.5% to close at 87.45 yuan; only China Gas (384), a constituent of the HSCEI, recorded gains, up 0.5% to close at 12.02 yuan. Country Garden Services (6098) fell 7.5% to close at 14.56 yuan; parent company Country Garden (2007) slumped 6.5% to close at 2.72 yuan, both among the top three decliners in the HSI and HSCEI.
ITP (8446), one of the stage contractors of the MIRROR concert, suffered a sudden crash in its share price, plummeting 76% at one point, and its market value evaporated by 6.34 billion yuan, but the decline narrowed a few minutes later and closed down 9 % reported 9.46 yuan.
The situation in the Taiwan Strait reflects that there will be a black swan in Sino-US relations at any time, and if there is a slight accident, it will be difficult to make a soft landing. Therefore, investors should fasten their seat belts.
HSBC’s branch of HSBC protects the interests of shareholders
Originally, following the US raised interest rates by 0.75%, the Federal Reserve would not discuss interest rates until September, and there was a multi-month window for short-term speculation. Now there are more geopolitical factors, so be careful when picking stocks for short-term speculation. The first thing to consider is that companies with high political risk should be avoided. It seems that Big Benxiang HSBC (005) is headquartered in the UK and is subject to local supervision, but its main business is in Hong Kong. , it actually reflects the interests of shareholders. It is best that Chinese business belongs to Chinese business, and foreign business belongs to foreign business. The management is separated, and the shareholders buy and sell according to their preferences. The board of directors does not accept it. That’s it. Another way to wear a seat belt is to avoid companies with high valuations and no dividends, in case the situation changes suddenly and there is no danger.
Jin Riku
