The long-awaited interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve was in line with expectations at 75 basis points. The financial market reacted positively to this decision in the days that followed. The positive business outlook from Amazon and Apple last Thursday was able to compensate for the weak quarterly figures from Meta and caused a price rally at the end of the week. The crypto market followed this positive trend on the stock market and also trended further north in the following days. Although Bitcoin (BTC) once more missed a sustained breakout above the resistance level of 24,200 US dollars, the key crypto currency is able to stabilize above 23,000 US dollars for the time being at the start of the week today. You can read in the following overview article which economic data and quarterly figures from the USA might have an impact on the price development of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Co this week.
Important company data in focus
After the majority of the large US technology companies such as Microsoft, Apple and Amazon presented their quarterly figures last week, other relevant technology companies from the second tier will open their books this week. Investors should keep an eye on the quarterly figures of the largest institutional Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy and the figures of the world’s largest payment service provider Paypal tomorrow Tuesday. Both companies are major players in the crypto space.
This week’s rain of numbers is rounded off by business figures from the US broker Robinhood in the middle of the week and the quarterly report from The Block next Thursday. Possible sales declines and weak business prospects for the second half of the year are likely to have a negative impact on the crypto sector.
First figures on the number of vacancies in the US on Tuesday
The JOLTS Job Report will be published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics tomorrow, Tuesday, August 2 at 4:00 p.m. (CET). The forecast of the experts is 11 million vacancies. In the previous month, the number of job vacancies in the US was 11.25 million. A further fall in the number of vacancies points to a sustained economic slowdown. This once more increases the likelihood of a downturn in the US. At the same time, continued negative developments on the job market should be taken into account by the US Federal Reserve when it makes its next interest rate decision in September.
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) mid-week
The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the month of July will follow on Wednesday 3 August at 16:00 (CET). The Institute for Supply Management presents the results of the monthly survey of 370 purchasing managers and company bosses from 62 industries. The experts’ forecast for the past month is 53.3, following 55.3 in June. Falling PMI numbers indicate a deepening downturn in the key services sector. Worse-than-expected figures might prompt the Fed to rethink its interest rate policy more quickly. The stock market and thus also the crypto market might interpret less good numbers bullishly.
Initial jobless claims in the US on Thursday
The following Thursday, August 4, at 2:30 p.m. (CET) the number of initial jobless claims in the USA will be presented. 259,000 new initial applications are currently expected. In the previous week, this number was 256,000. If this figure continues to rise, as it did in the previous weeks, the Fed might be more likely than propagated to decide to initiate new financial relief in order to avert a sharp rise in unemployment in the coming months.
Large labor market report at the end of the week
On the last day of the first week of trading, August 5, at 2:30 p.m. (CET), the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) figures for the past month of July will be published. These so-called “Nonfarm Payrolls” describe the monthly change in the number of employees without employees in agriculture. The monthly labor market report is the most important and meaningful figure among the US economic indicators. Increasing job growth is considered an indication of an improvement in the labor market and the associated increase in consumer spending. If, on the other hand, job growth corrects, this is an important indication of increasing problems on the labor market.
In the past, declining job growth has often had a negative effect on future consumer spending. The forecast for July is 250,000 employees. Compared to the previous month (372,000), the forecasts of the experts are once more well below the published figures from June. Weak NFP numbers are negative for the US dollar, which is supportive for the development of the bitcoin rate might work. In addition, weak employment data would be another reason for the US Federal Reserve to reconsider the planned rate hikes.
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