Today the blue dollar fell for the first time in a week. This is the first pause that has been taken, following having reached new all-time highs in the last four exchange sessions, with peaks that reached $350 during Friday’s session. However, the country risk was on the verge of the barrier of 3000 basis points.
In the porteña street of Florida, the little trees sell the informal ticket at $322, $16 less than in the previous closing (-4.9%). Even so, it still registers an advance of $83 so far in July (+34.7%) and $116 compared to the first week of June (+56.3%), before the debt crisis in pesos breaks out .
“The current currency crisis has a high component of political uncertainty. Stabilization will require signals from that realm of power to reestablish confidence. But, at the same time, the dynamics of the dollar is the product of macroeconomic problems. Therefore, the definitive exit, we believe, will require efforts from both fronts”, said Nery Persichini, economist at GMA Capital.
In some Argentine provinces, the value is a little higher. For example, in Tierra del Fuego and Santa Cruz it reaches $321, while in Córdoba, Salta, Santa Fe and the interior of Buenos Aires it is offered at $319, according to Infodollar.
Financial exchange rates operate in the same vein, registering the second consecutive low round. That is how the MEP dollar appears on screens at $314.44, a daily drop of $1 (-0.3%).
The dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) or Cablewhich is used to settle the dollars in a bank account outside of Argentina, is offered to $324,60, two pesos less than the previous close (-0.6%). Last week, according to market versions, the National Securities Commission asked the Alycs (stock exchange companies) not to trade “class C” bonds in large quantities.
“For a month, Argentina has been suffering three shocks: the debt crisis in pesos in June, the tightening of the stocks on imports (Communication 7532) and the change of Minister of Economy. In this context, the new minister Silvina Batakis is a ‘follow-follow’ of Martín Guzmán and, since she took office, she has not taken any ‘forceful’ measures. The result: the parallel dollar skyrocketed.” summary Fernando Marull, FMyA economist.
At the other end of the foreign exchange market is the wholesale exchange rate, whose price is moved slowly by the Central Bank (BCRA). This price, which serves as a reference in foreign trade, is being sold at $130.40 (+0.5%). Thus, the gap once morest blue is above 156%.
“If a gap of 80% [el valor promedio de 2021] was already a substantive distortion component, it is evident that the effects of a difference of more than 150% exacerbate these problems much more. On a historical level, periods with such high gaps tend to be short-lived and their outcomes are usually unhappy, so it is natural that the incentives to liquidate are reduced”, they pointed out from Consultatio Investment.
Today, the official retail dollar appears on the screens of Banco Nación at $136. The “savings” dollar, with a surcharge of 30% PAIS tax and 35% on Profit account, stands at $224.40. The “card” dollar, with 30% PAIS and 45% Profits, reaches $238.
It is a key week in the international markets. On Wednesday the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) might raise interest rates even more, with the aim of confronting American inflation. As a consequence, emerging countries will be affected, situation that complicates the Argentine variables.
Faced with fears of a global recession and the internal noises themselves, today the country risk continues to advance, despite the fact that in the first hours of the day it came to show a setback. The index prepared by JP Morgan rises 23 units and stands at 2,976 basis points (+1.1%), a new maximum post-exchange value. This is due to the drop in global bonds, which have fallen by up to 1.5% abroad this week (GD30D).
“A week begins in which the market’s gaze will be on the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the announcement of the rate decision on Wednesday. The market consensus is for a new hike the 75pbs, movement favored by the majority of the members of the Fed who gave statements since the bad inflation data for June in the United States was known”, they summarized from the SBS Group.
The S&P Merval operates at 117,358 units, an intraday rise of 3.1%. On the New York Stock Exchange, Argentine stocks (ADRs) spend the day in the green: Edenor papers stand out with 10.5%, followed by Cresud (+8.4%) and Banco Macro (+5, two%).
