There are several reasons that have led India to dethrone China. Although both countries have adopted official family planning programs, the political and socioeconomic situation has been quite different. China’s form of government allowed it to implement one of the strictest population control programs.
“The one-child demographic policy followed in China has caused the total fertility rate to decline. Although over the years, China has reversed this policy, it has contributed significantly to this demographic transition,” Lekha S. Chakraborty, professor at the National Institute of Finance and Public Policy (NIPFP) in New Delhi.
In India, poverty, high infant mortality and low levels of education for women have historically been associated with a high birth rate. India is the nation with the largest number of poor people in the world.
Aashish Gupta, demographer and researcher at the Center for Population and Development Studies at Harvard University, explains that “inequality in India, especially social and gender inequality, limited the scope of education and health, and other social services. . These factors have contributed to population growth.”
More challenges
Key to understanding the impact of this milestone on India is to examine the composition of its population. The UN report shows that the Indian population is growing, but at a slower rate.
“The rapid decline in fertility in India has occurred largely without coercive population control measures. Currently, India has reached the level of replacement fertility (two children per couple), but continues to add significant numbers due to the demographic boost as a result of its young population”, explains Srinivas Goli, professor of population studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. from New Delhi.
Like other developing countries, India faces challenges in ensuring a decent standard of living for its huge population. Chakraborty warns that India’s demographic dividend – of a younger population – will soon wither. “The increase in the dependent population will affect the decrease in participation rates in the labor market and the increase in the costs of public health and social security.”
For his part, Goli emphasizes that education is the most important driver of fertility. “But many couples, especially women, do not have adequate access to family planning services, which also leads to more children than desired. What is important is that India’s fertility levels have dropped significantly, and the birth rate will continue to decline as couples receive the reproductive health services they need.”
