The budgetary orientation debate for the period 2023-2025 opened this Saturday, July 23, 2022, in the hemicycle. This is a framework for exchanges between the Guinean government and the members of the National Council of the Transition on the economic context, the prospects, the planned initiatives of actions, expenditures, investments and receipts of the State for the next three years, as well as on the major associated policy guidelines.
Moussa Cissé, budget minister
During the opening ceremony, Budget Minister Moussa Cissé presented the multi-year budget programming document (medium-term budget framework/medium-term expenditure framework for 2023-2025).
For his part, the Minister of Economy and Finance and Planning, Lanciné Condé, proceeded to the presentation of public investment expenditure. A document that includes optimistic forecasts in terms of economic growth for the next three years.
“Economic growth would be 5.1% in 2022 once morest 4.9% in 2021. Over the period 2023-2026, it would stand at 6.1% on average annually, supported by all economic sectors. This development is explained, in part, by the implementation of the actions planned in the various sectoral policy documents, as well as by the resumption of activities in all sectors. The added value of the primary sector should grow by 4.4% in 2022 once morest 5.6% in 2021.
From 2023 to 2026, it will increase by an annual average of 5.8% thanks to the good performance of agricultural, livestock and fishing activities. The agricultural added value will grow by 5.8% on average annually, due to the continued distribution of inputs (seeds, fertilizers and phytosanitary products) and the improvement in productivity. The fishing sub-sector is expected to grow at the rate of 5.8% in 2022 and 7.4% on average per year from 2023 to 2026. The increase in the number of shipowners and the development of fish farming will contribute to this favorable prospect.
The growth rate of the secondary sector would reach 7.7% in 2022 and 6.1% on annual average over the period 2028-2026, supported by the mining sub-sector and the development prospects of the country’s industrial fabric. The growth of the tertiary sector will be 3.4% in 2022 and 5.7% on average per year between 2023 and 2026. This performance would result from the resumption of activities in all its sub-sectors. The end of the Covid-19 pandemic and the reorganization of the Chamber of Commerce will contribute to the revival of the trade sub-sector, which will be decisive in relation to this prospect.
Inflation will maintain its downward trend. The inflation rate in 2022 is projected at 12.7% once morest an annual average of 9.8% in 2024, before settling at 8.0% in 2026. Reforms and consolidation of the monetary sector will support this projection. The overall balance of the balance of payments would show a surplus over the entire period, thanks to the mobilization of external financial resources by the public administration. The current account would show a surplus of 14.3% of GDP in 2022 and 35.5% of GDP in 2026. These surpluses would come from excess balances of goods and secondary income,” said Lanciné Condé.
Lancine Condé, Minister of Economy, Finance and Planning
To achieve these objectives, the government plans to carry out several projects and investment programs, which relate to the refoundation of the State; institutional rectification and justice reform; the construction and implementation of basic social services (education, health, etc.); the establishment of an effective governance framework; improving financial management and the macroeconomic framework; construction of quality road infrastructure; optimization of port and airport procedures; improving urban and interurban transport; the strategic and efficient allocation of budgetary resources; the establishment of tools for the effective management of public expenditure; and the creation of an enabling environment for the development of the domestic and foreign private sector.
Projections whose implementation requires a budget of more than 59 trillion Guinean francs. “The expenditure in its investment component projected over the period 2023-2025 amounts to 59,081.83 billion, of which 23,524.83 billion (39.82%) on own resources and 35,556.99 billion (60.18%) in external financing. They relate to 310 projects. For the 2023 financial year, investment expenditure is estimated at 15,485.68 billion, an increase of 52.08% compared to the 2022 budget. It breaks down into financing from own resources for 8,536.78 billion (55 .12%) and in external financing for 6,949.70 billion (44.88%).
For the next two years (2024 and 2025), they are projected at 16,775.50 billion and 26,820.46 billion respectively. The sector breakdown of this projection over the 2023-2025 period is as follows: 1) Infrastructure and Equipment take 35.94%, with 21,234.53 billion; (i) the social sector absorbs 13.10%, with 7,740.58 billion; and (ii) the General Administration represents 23.62% of the total public investments projected over the period, ie 13,953.56 billion; iv) the Water, Energy, Mines, Industry and Services sector represents 17.58%, for an amount of 10,384.89 billion; and (v) rural development occupies 8.43% of the projection volume, i.e. 4,979.70 billion,” said Minister Lanciné Condé.
It should be noted that this budgetary orientation debate also aims to allow the members of the National Council of the Transition to make suggestions and recommendations to the government within the framework of the budgetary programming for the next three years.
Mamadou Bhoye Laafa Sow pour Guineematin.com