The blue dollar not to mark historical highs. Since the crisis of the debt in pesos exploded in June, a fact that led the Central Bank (BCRA) to speed up the “little machine” of making banknotes, free exchange rates have not stopped rising. Today, with more noise than certainty regarding the direction the economy will takeparallel dollars continue to consolidate above $300.
In the third wheel of the week, in the porteña Florida street the blue dollar is sold at $309, the highest quote on record. It is a daily increase of $8 (2.6%), of $18 so far this week (+8.1%) and of $70 in the month of July (+29.2%).
Without going any further, on June 7 the parallel exchange rate remained stable at $206, the same value with which the year began. But between the massive outflow of funds from the bonds in pesos that are adjusted by CER, issuance, the change of figures in the Ministry of Economy, the tightening of the stocks (imports, dollar savings and end of quotas) and the strong advance of the inflation, blue skyrocketed $103 in a month and a half. It’s 50%.
“The demand in the financial exchange rates does not loosen. The pressure generated in the debt in pesos at the beginning of June ended up strongly affecting the foreign exchange market following the growing issuance, going from an exchange rate of $210 to the current $300. At the same time, the prospects of higher inflation significantly affected real interest rates (increasingly negative) further damaging the demand for money”, explained Lucas Yatche, head of strategy and investments at Liebre Capital.
The same comparison can be made with financial exchange rates.. Today the MEP dollar or “Bolsa”, that allows greenbacks to be made legally and without restrictions through the purchase and sale of bonds, appears on screens $301,39. They are $4 more in the day (+1.4%), $10 in the week (+3.4%), $53 in July (+21.3%) and $92.70 from the first week of June (+44, 4%).
The dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) or “Cable”, which closed neutral yesterday due to calls from the National Securities Commission (CNV) to “suggest” that type C of the bonds not be operated, today it advances to the $306,40. This is an escalation of almost $3 in the day (+0.9%), $5 in the week (+1.6%), $54 in July (+21.4%) and $96 in a month and a half (+ 45.7%).
“The continuous sale of reserves together with the acceleration of inflation (above 7% m/m in July), the gap in maximums and the uncertainty regarding the ability to adjust public accounts lay the foundations for a complex panorama that keeps the demand for currency hedging high. Barring any positive developments, we believe this trend will continue in the coming days.” considered from Delphos Investment.
The official exchange rate wholesalerwhich is used in foreign trade and the Central Bank moves slowlyis offered at $129.42 (+0.2%). Against the blue dollar, today the highest price in the market, the exchange rate gap is 137%.
The official retail dollar appears on the screens of Banco Nación at $135.75. If a 30% PAIS tax and 35% Profits are added to that value, given that the “savings” dollar is $223.98. Instead, the dollar “card” (which has 30% of PAIS and 45% on account of Profits) cuesta $237,56.
