Oil stagnates, between recession and market in need of crude

Around 11:20 a.m., Brent took 0.79% to 99.88 dollars. The WTI grabbed meanwhile 0.19% to 95.96 dollars. The two world oil benchmarks lost more than 8% over the week.

Oil prices wavered between gains and losses on Friday, both weighed down by fears of recession and slowing demand, and supported by supply which still seems insufficient to ease the market.

Around 09:20 GMT (11:20 CET), a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in September, took 0.79% to 99.88 dollars.

A barrel of American West Texas Intermediate (WTI), for delivery in August, gleaned 0.19% to 95.96 dollars.

The two world oil benchmarks lost more than 8% over the week.

For analysts at Commerzbank, it is “likely” that they will continue to slide “given that fears of recession are unlikely to subside for the time being”.

The global economic outlook is “darkening”, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Wednesday.

Soaring prices and economic difficulties are beginning to weigh on global oil demand, the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out on Wednesday in its monthly report on black gold, but not enough to ease the market. .

“In this context of a global slowdown and concerns regarding inflation, investors expect further sharp increases in interest rates”, in particular from the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), said Stephen Brennock, analyst at PVM Energy.

Another significant hike in the Fed’s key rates might further support the dollar, which peaked this week at levels not seen in decades once morest the euro or the yen.

Usually, “a strong dollar increases the costs of importing countries (of oil) in local currency, which depresses demand, and vice versa”, explains Stephen Brennock.

The analyst points out that this correspondence has disappeared since the invasion of Ukraine by Russia. “Rising oil prices have been accompanied by the strength of the dollar. Today, however, this inverse correlation is reasserting itself,” he continues.

At the same time, the President of the United States is going to Saudi Arabia on Friday, following Israel.

“His priority will be to get OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) to pump more crude to bring prices down,” says Brennock, who stresses, however, that his arguments might be weakened by the recent drop. prices that brought oil back to its pre-war levels in Ukraine.

Iran said on Friday it was even “more determined” to retain its interests in any agreement on the nuclear file, following the signing of an Israeli-American strategic partnership once morest Tehran during Joe Biden’s visit to Israel.

Which further remove the possibility of a positive outcome of the negotiations, which would lead to the lifting of American sanctions once morest Iran and allow its return to full export capacity on the oil market.

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