PostedJuly 11, 2022, 9:45 PM
Driven by the expansion of traffic and the replacement of old aircraft, Airbus estimates that the world fleet will exceed 46,000 aircraft by 2041.
A few days before the Farnborough air show in the United Kingdom, the European aircraft manufacturer Airbus delivered its growth forecasts for the coming years on Monday.
REUTERS
The number of planes in the world should double over the next 20 years under the effect of the growth of world air traffic but also of the need for companies to replace their aircraft with more economical planes, according to Airbus. The need is estimated at 39,490 new passenger and cargo planes by 2041, bringing the world fleet to 46,930 aircraft, compared to 22,880 in 2020, estimates the European aircraft manufacturer on Monday in its market forecasts a few days before Farnborough Airshow (UK).
This estimate is in line with the previous one (39,020 new aircraft) to which Airbus delivered in November 2021. The European aircraft manufacturer has however revised slightly downwards, from 3.9 to 3.6%, the annual growth average traffic. It is more conservative than that of rival Boeing, which forecasts a need for 43,610 new deliveries. The American giant must publish its updated forecasts on Sunday.
The pandemic will not have a long-term impact on construction
Despite the collapse in global air traffic, which is only expected to return to its 2019 level between 2023 and 2025, the Covid-19 pandemic will therefore have no long-term impact on the need for new aircraft. If 60% of future deliveries must be used to cope with the increase in traffic (24,000 aircraft), 40%, or 15,400, are intended to replace aircraft currently in service with aircraft that consume less fuel.
The most recent devices save 15 to 20% in kerosene consumption, and therefore as much less CO2 emissions, compared to the previous generation. A strong argument for the aviation sector, under pressure to reduce its environmental footprint and which has committed to “net zero emissions” of CO2 by 2050.
Asia-Pacific, a market that will continue to grow
The main growth areas expected are Asia-Pacific, which should concentrate 23% of new aircraft deliveries, ahead of China (21%), Europe (21%) and North America (18%) . Some 80% of the need for new aircraft concerns single-aisle aircraft (type A320 or Boeing 737), 20% long-haul (A330, A350, B787, B777).
The need for cargo planes should be 2,440 aircraft, or 900 more than currently driven in particular by the development of online commerce. The scale of the need justifies, according to Airbus, its intention to increase its production of A320 family aircraft to 75 monthly aircraft in 2025, compared to just over 45 currently. Airbus’ order book stood at 7,046 aircraft at the end of June, including 5,829 from the A320 family, giving it many years of production.
(AFP)
