How might the war in Ukraine develop following the fall of Luhansk? In the latest video from the Theresian Military Academy in Vienna, a colonel analyzes the situation – and surprises with personal details.
At regular intervals, the Theresa Military Academy in Vienna on YouTube the picture of the situation in the Ukraine – and with resounding success.
Although the Channel of the Austrian Armed Forces only has 157,000 subscribers, the German-language videos usually reach around 750,000 viewers. Recently, English-language versions have been added that have even more reach: «The Battle for Donbass» have been watched 1.7 million times since it came out a month ago.
The clips are always made by Dr. Markus Reisner presents. The Colonel of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is leading the analysis in his role as Head of Development at the Military Academy. First, the focus is raised: The war in Ukraine was recently played out on the Kharkiv, Donbass and Cherson fronts, the colonel introduces.
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
What happened in Donbass between April and July? Moscow has withdrawn its troops from Kyiv, regrouped and deployed them massively in the Luhansk Oblast – including new tactics characterized by “massive artillery strikes and a slow advance”. The comparison on the map shows that the attackers’ gains in Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk in three months are rather clear.
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
Russia had been shelling the defenders’ positions with artillery for a month before they were able to advance from Popasna on May 5-6. From this position, the armed forces were able to advance behind the defenders of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk and threaten the T1302 road connecting the two cities to the west of the country.
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
Russians manage to cross the Siwerskyi Donetsk
Reisner believes that the Kremlin deliberately did not initially close the kettle. The reason: Moscow wanted the defenders to continue bringing forces and equipment into the pocket to fight them there – including Western weapons. Videos showing the destruction of American M777 guns also came from this period.
At the end of June it was possible to do something that had previously been attempted without success: to build a bridge over the Siwerskyi Donetsk in the north and to put the Ukrainians through the wringer from two sides. The defenders then had to withdraw from the pocket, explains the colonel: they had to leave heavy equipment behind. Lyssychansk was finally taken on July 3.
This boiler only had small dimensions – regarding 40 by 40 kilometers, says Reisner. To the west to the Dnieper, however, the terrain is significantly deeper. The Ukrainians had set up two lines of defense to slow down further advances into the Donbass. The first line goes from Siwersk to Bakhmut. The second range from Sloviansk and Kramatrosk and Kostyantynivka to Toretsk.
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
“Frontal approach” or pincer movement in the hinterland?
The question now is how many Ukrainians will be withdrawn from the pocket and how many reinforcements they might bring down. If the Russian army meets little resistance here, the advance to the west will continue, the Austrian predicts. One can only speculate where and how.
One possibility is the “frontal approach”, in which the attackers move between the lines mentioned above. But there are also reports of troop concentrations in the north of the Donbass, which would speak for an advance behind the second line of defense in order to outrun both lines. «He brings [für die Russen] Of course, there is the problem of open flanks,” Reisner points out the risk of such a move.
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
The balance of power continues to be essential for the coming weeks, the military explains. That turned out in favor of the Russians: two weeks ago, around 81 battalions from the Ukraine were facing 93 battalions from the enemy. Now it looks like 60 Ukrainian battalions have to stop 108 Russian battalions. Kiev’s troops have worn themselves out, while Moscow has been pursuing soldiers.
Western artillery: Great effect despite small numbers
“Of course you have to take into account that both sides have suffered casualties and that these battalion equivalents are not at full strength,” said the expert. But the trend is clear – and the defenders are all the more dependent on weapons from the West.
Around 200 T-72 main battle tanks, which are now at the front, come from Poland and the Czech Republic. More interesting is the use of artillery: “Only a few systems were delivered here, but you can see that the use of the system Himarsbut also from the Polish one Krab and the German one Howitzer 2000 very likely to have an effect.”
Die Howitzer 2000 shoot “end phase controlled ammunition”, explains Reisner: This might “contribute to spectacular successes”. The system Himars had apparently already been used once morest Russian ammunition depots. The missiles used would have a range of 80 kilometers.
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
High wear on Ukrainian side
Reisner also provides interesting information on the aspect of the attrition of the troops: he refers to a Interview with the Ukrainian Brigadier General Volodymyr Karpenko, who is relatively open regarding his own losses. Accordingly, the defenders would have lost half their strength. 1300 infantry fighting vehicles, 400 tanks and 700 artillery systems have already been destroyed.
Even more serious is the “strategic attrition” caused by the constant rocket attacks. Between February 24 and June 9, 2,600 rockets were fired at Ukraine. “As long as Ukraine does not have an effective anti-aircraft defense system, it cannot defend itself once morest these attacks,” Reisner explains.
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces
The Austrian fears that the winter will further worsen the situation of the defenders. The reason: The areas that Russia has now occupied are responsible for a large part of industrial and agricultural production. This will make it difficult for Kyiv to provide citizens with food, energy and everyday necessities.
personal words
At the end of his presentation, Markus Reisner gets personal – and emotional. “Our presentations are as objective as possible,” he says. “An objective assessment is the basis of any clear picture of the situation. Today I want to make an exception.”
In 2021 he had the “honor” of being able to lead the Austrian contingent in Kosovo as commander. In this context, he also commanded the KFOR force of the Joint Logistic Support Group, which also included 50 Ukrainians, three of whom were officers.
“One of these three officers, a good comrade and friend, Kyrylo Hubanov, died at the age of 26 on June 10 in the Battle of Donbass,” says Reisner in a husky voice. “At this point, friendship beats neutrality, and it is my personal concern to commemorate his person and to show him this picture in his honor.”
YouTube/Austrian Armed Forces