Mr. Therdsak Thaveetheerathum, Deputy Director of Research Division of Asia Plus Securities revealed that the trend of the Thai stock market index during the 3rd quarter of 2022 is still in a resting period. which has been pressured by the global economic outlook that is in a period of resting as well from inflation that tends to rise continuously And the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues. As a result, the World Bank lowered its forecast for the world GDP of 65 to 2.9% from 4.1%.
while the central banks Tighter monetary policy is needed with interest rate hikes. and extract liquidity from the system because it focuses more on the extraction of inflation than the economic growth. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to continue raising interest rates in the remaining four meetings of this year. by expected month July will increase 0.75% to 2.5% and the interest rate at the end of the year will be 3.5%, starting to affect the economic indicators signaling a slowdown.
For the Bank of Thailand (BOT) began to signal the policy interest rate hike. But there will be a gradual implementation. The meeting is scheduled as soon as August 10. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to raise interest rates by 0.25% in the remaining three meetings of this year. As a result, the Thai interest rate at the end of the year stood at 1.25%, causing the difference between the year-end interest to be 2.25%, wider compared to the current 1.25%, affecting the baht’s tendency to depreciate above 36 baht/ USD It is a factor that causes foreign capital to flow out.
In addition, there are 3 factors that continually affect the direction of the SET Index: Loyalty tax in the real estate sector and the issue of asking for cooperation with the operators of the refinery group 2. Commodity prices that have begun to adjust from concerns regarding recession in the global economy and the US 3. Trading of large IPO stocks, insurance groups that qualify for the SET50 Index Fast Track during July 65, that may put pressure on similar stocks such as commercial banks, insurance and finance.
Net profit of Thai listed companies remains projected for EPS of 2022 at 88.9 baht per share, however, earnings in 2Q22 are expected to slow down compared to 1Q12.
investment strategy It is advisable to keep the cash share at 30% in order to invest during the downturn in the index. By assessing the level of risk that can be taken at 1570 points, if the index falls below that. recommended to gradually accumulate And sell it to take profit during the index rose above 1570 points.
Top Pick stocks in 3Q22 were the group that benefited from the reopening of the city Top Pick was CRC BEM CENTEL CPN Shares benefited from the continued depreciation of the baht CPF Shares benefited from the KTB Interest Rates and Shares Benefit from TRUE Merger
Ms. Krittayaporn Thadasih, Head of Foreign Securities Investment Department, Asia Plus Securities It is seen that stock markets around the world face heavy volatility from 3 factors: the economic slowdown. geopolitical conflict And the tight monetary policy action of most central banks around the world has caused the MSCI World index, which comprises 23 of the world’s leading stocks, down nearly 9% over the past one month.
however The Chinese stock market can rebound once morest other markets. Due to the Chinese government’s strict policy to control private companies and the spread of the COVID-19 virus. In addition, stimulus measures were accelerated in order to achieve this year’s economic growth target of 5.5%. In the past, the Chinese government has announced the easing of lockdowns in key economic cities such as Beijing and Shanghai. and has announced the reduction of quarantine days for foreign travelers, making intercity travel more free for Chinese people. China’s local platform for booking travel and accommodation, Tongcheng Travel Holdings, has also benefited.
In terms of China’s economic stimulus package, the 33 measures are worth more than $5.3 trillion. accounted for up to one-third of the Chinese economy. which mainly focuses on supply-side stimulus measures, such as tax cuts, interest rate cuts and investments in infrastructure Clean energy is one of the areas that the Chinese government has focused on driving in the long term. Under the zero carbon reduction target before 2060
In addition, the Chinese government has issued measures to stimulate demand. To support spending while driving clean energy. mainly focusing on stimulating the electric vehicle industry The government is considering extending the tax exemption for electric vehicle subsidies that have been in effect since 2014, and pushing people to use electric vehicles instead of combustion vehicles.
Mr. Padon Suksawad, Head of Investment Strategy and Product Consulting Department, Asia Plus Securities said that although in the past period has seen a large correction in the price of risky assets around the world But going forward from the uncertainty of inflation and high energy prices. together with the acceleration of interest rate hikes by various central banks It will continue to be a depressing factor for the economy and performance of listed companies around the world. Therefore, investment in 3Q22 will continue to focus on investing in regions that see clear signs of recovery. and continually have measures to stimulate the economy, both financially and fiscally, such as China.
By InfoQuest News Agency (11 Jul 65)
Tags: SET, Krittayaporn Thadasi, Thai stock market index, stock market, Phadorn Suksawat, Therdsak Taweetheerathum, Asia Plus