Is the Russia-Ukraine war becoming not even big news as the months go by? The world can only watch as the war continues unchecked. Are the global disasters that war has already paved the way for so trivial?
The Russia-Ukraine war has brought inflation, rising interest rates and a debt crisis to the global economy. It is the biggest price increase in a decade recorded globally. This large-scale price increase is unaffordable for developing countries, which have to spend a major portion of their income on food and energy needs. 60 percent of the world’s low-income countries are in debt. Rising inflation and rising food prices have severely affected purchasing and selling even in developed countries.
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The Russia-Ukraine war has come as a shock to the global economy, which has been crippled by climate change and Covid. Russia is the first and second largest exporter of natural gas and oil. Because of this, the war led to a huge increase in energy prices. Similarly, Russia and Belarus control one-fifth of the world’s total fertilizer exports. This led to a huge jump in fertilizer prices worldwide. International prices of crude oil have increased by 60 per cent, while fertilizers have more than doubled. The increase in the price of oil, natural gas and chemical fertilizers and restrictions on the movement of goods have created a great crisis for the countries of the world in food production and distribution. According to the food price index published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations in April 2022, there has been a 34 percent increase in food prices in a year.
Russia and Ukraine are known as Europe’s food pantry. Together, these two countries provide 30 percent of the world’s wheat and barley, 20 percent of corn, and 50 percent of sunflower oil in the world’s food supply chain. At least 25 African countries import half of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Around 400 million people around the world are directly dependent on food imports from Ukraine. About 90 percent of Ukraine’s grain exports went through Black Sea ports. But as soon as the Ukraine crisis began, shipping through the Black Sea was disrupted. On the one hand, the military offensive is disrupting Ukraine’s agriculture sector, while on the other, the movement of grain through the Black Sea is being disrupted. Since the beginning of the war, the price of corn and wheat has increased by more than 30 percent. It is estimated that the increase in the price of chemical fertilizers and their unavailability will cause a decrease of 50 percent in the agricultural production of the producer countries, which are dominated by small farmers, this year.
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A reduction in the production of rice, wheat and other grains will create a food crisis in Asian-African-American countries. Starting from the arid corridors of Central America, the Caribbean country of Haiti, several Central and Eastern African countries, Madagascar, Syria and Yemen, the fire of hunger is spreading globally. It is estimated that nearly 50 million people in 45 countries face extreme hunger. 19.7 million people are facing starvation in Afghanistan. Nearly two lakh people in Somalia are facing extreme hunger and poverty. By September, 18 million Sudanese people and 19 million Yemenis by December will face extreme poverty. India’s neighboring countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are dying in the hands of hunger. UNICEF, the United Nations agency, states that if we do not respond adequately to the Russia-Ukraine war and do not try to solve the problem, we are just looking at an explosion of child mortality in the world. The number of undernourished children was 47 million in 2019 and will rise to 60 million in 2022. In Afghanistan alone, one million children are on the brink of disaster due to malnutrition.<The prime minister of India made an important announcement when food shortages worsened following the war. That announcement was to open up India's food reserves to the world, which is facing a food crisis. India's announcement was widely accepted in the face of wheat shortage all over the world. After China, India is the largest producer of wheat in the world. However, the Prime Minister's announcement did not last long. India had to stop exporting wheat within a month. In March 2022, India had to back out of the promise when it realized that the heat wave India faced was adversely affecting wheat production. The Food Corporation was unable to ensure adequate reserves for the country. Rising inflation also contributed to the recession. The wholesale price index, which was just 2.26 percent earlier this year, has now risen to 14.55 percent. The retail inflation index also stood at 7.79 percent. This is the highest rate in the last eight years. The G-7 countries themselves have come forward to condemn India's ban on wheat exports, as if inviting a wayward Vayyaveli. Yet the Prime Minister was a special invitee at the G-7 summit in late June at Schloss Elmau in Bavaria under the German presidency to discuss the global energy and food crisis. It was a reflection of the food crisis the world was facing. India has given a fresh promise that the export ban is temporary and will resume wheat exports when the situation improves.
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India passed the National Food Security Act in 2013 making food a fundamental right. But the country’s achievement in implementing this is only 56.8 percent of what it might have been, according to a study conducted by the Human Rights Measurement Initiative. According to the United Nations, 195 million Indians are undernourished. This is a quarter of the world’s total hungry population. In terms of global food security, India ranks only 71 out of 113 important countries. In the 2021 “Global Hunger Index”, India has been relegated to the 101st position out of 116 countries studied. According to the 2021 report jointly released by various United Nations agencies, India’s food security has declined by 6.8 percent in two years. After the Covid pandemic, an additional 9.7 crore people have become food insecure. People around the world have been forced to flee their homes and farms due to war and unrest. This poses a threat to their food security. In 2021, 139 million people faced food crisis in 24 countries and provinces. When climate change goes hand in hand with war, we need to realize how dire the food crisis it creates will be. Extreme weather events, which used to be rare, have become almost daily occurrences anywhere in the world, and have severely affected agricultural production and food supply systems. East Africa is currently facing its worst drought in 40 years. Major hurricanes are predicted to hit Latin American countries and the Caribbean islands in 2022. 280 heatwave days have been recorded in 16 states of India in 2022. In the northwestern states, this year saw the highest temperature in the last 122 years. In South Asia, India has the most farmers affected by climate change. As global warming increases, it will reduce rice production in India by 10 to 30 percent; Studies have shown that maize production can decrease by 25 to 70 percent.
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In a message to the Berlin Ministerial Conference on “Global Food Security” hosted by the German government, shortly before the G-7 summit in June 2022, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the world is on the brink of “the worst food crisis in 50 years”. “What we are facing is a global food crisis like never before. “The crisis created by climate change and Covid-19 has been exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, and there is no doubt that it will become a catastrophe if we do not take immediate preventive measures.”
Around 700 million people in the world are already living in extreme poverty. By 2030, the number of poor people will increase by 122 million. 60 percent of the population facing hunger resides in countries experiencing war, violence and unrest. Climate change and hunger cannot be tackled without achieving stability and peace around the world. While war creates hunger on the one hand, a global war on hunger is becoming inevitable on the other. This paradox is the balance sheet of any war.
