(DW Chinese website)
DW: Mr. Arestovic, Russia’s war on Ukraine has gone on3more than a month. How do you assess the current battle situation?
Arestovich: The methods and military means planned by the Russians did not work, and the “special operation” has completely failed. Therefore, they switched to conventional tactics, concentrating their troops and means on a certain front, and using their superior artillery and air force to crush the Ukrainian army. But they’ve also done a terrible job of that, despite some tactical success. War is much more than a battlefield. War is a complex process in which Russia has only certain advantages.
Signs of this include debates in the West regarding what Ukraine’s victory in the war means and whether Ukraine should win the war. A month ago, there were voices in the West saying that Ukraine must win, Russia must suffer military defeat, and others said that Russia must be weakened to the point where it can no longer threaten its neighbors with military force.
There is a second point of view. According to this view, Russia should neither win nor lose. Many Western politicians cannot imagine a world where Russia loses, but they can imagine a world where Russia does not win. This shows that some Western elites have no intention of preparing for such a big test, nor can they imagine living in a world where Russia fails, because it would mean a kind of historical change. What they’re thinking regarding is a return to “business as usual”.
DW: Does this mean that the conflict will “freeze” in areas currently contested?
Arestovich: In the areas they control, maybe there will be some kind of fait accompli and negotiation. But I have seen all of this in the negotiations of the tripartite contact group on Donbas for a year and a half. We cannot afford this situation. For 8 years, everything has been tried, and in the end we lost our territory. Then our citizens were forced to kill another part of the Ukrainians, just like the “mobilization” in the so-called “Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republic” right now.
DW: What are Ukraine’s greatest achievements and losses so far in this war?
Arestovich: Talking regarding achievements: The Russians attacked on 9 fronts, and now there are 5 left. That means we’ve defeated them on 4 fronts, and without Lend-Lease (the expedited arms shipments to Ukraine law passed by the US Congress), it means Russia has failed completely.
We have destroyed or incapacitated at least one-third of Russia’s forces, and as a result, the Russian military’s combat effectiveness has been greatly weakened. The best proof of this is that Russia had to mobilize secretly, using old T-62 tanks, and trying to recruit volunteers, train them for a week, and send them to the front line. This shows that the Russian army is seriously short of personnel. In addition, the Ukrainians sank the cruiser “Moscow”, the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. This is our great success.
The biggest loss was the fall of Mariupol, before which the Russian army moved rapidly southward from Crimea and captured Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk successively.
DW: Can Ukraine hold the southern regions in the initial stages of the war?
Arestovich: The balance of power between the two sides, the specificity of the defense in the steppe area, the proximity to the Russian airfields in Crimea—all these make me, as a soldier, have some doubts regarding whether we can defend effectively there . On the other hand, effective defenses might have been organized in these cities.
For example, Kherson is on the right bank of the Dnieper. The city should have been held because the Russians had to cross the river. Berdyansk is a dead end and difficult to defend. But you can defend the area between Berdyansk and Mariupol, the entire enclave south of Zaporozhye, where the Russians took over the nuclear power plant. But why has Ukraine not deployed troops there and organized an effective defense? Why is it actually fully occupied in 3 days? Investigative agencies are already looking for answers, and the people may not know until following the war. It is necessary to find out the truth so that it does not happen once more.
Russia-Ukraine war in eastern Ukraine
Deutsche Welle: Western countries have announced the delivery of longer-range missiles to UkraineHIMARSandM270Multiple rocket launcher. Does this help change the tide of battle?
Arestovich: It depends on the number of weapons and ammunition. If at least two divisions can be equipped, then the offensive capability of the Russian army at the operational level will be marked with a big question mark. If the numbers were not so large, the tide of battle would still have changed in our favor, but the Russians would also be able to continue the attack, albeit with more pain and greater losses, which is also a good thing, because time is in our favor. A third possibility is that we will receive enough military assistance to not only hold back the Russians, but to carry out a counter-offensive.
DW: You have said that the Ukrainian army pretended to abandon the city in Sjerodonetsk to lure the Russian army into a trap. Did this trick work?
Arestovic: This tactic was quite successful. Of course, it does not mean that we will not evacuate the city. We can inflict heavy losses on the Russians first, then retreat and hold Lesichansk. Our defensive tactics include both counter-attacks and provisions for temporarily abandoning a place when it is not worth defending. Our command is doing everything it can to eliminate the enemy forces and weaken them. Our troops are on the offensive in Sjerodonetsk and have recaptured several streets.
Deutsche Welle: Budanov, head of the Intelligence Service of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (Kyrylo Budanov) recently stated that the war situation will be8The month turns a corner, and the fierce fighting will end at the end of the year. Do you agree with this outlook?
Arestovic: If Western arms and military equipment are delivered as fast as we expect, then that may be the case. The turning point he is talking regarding, probably as I mean, is that we will accumulate enough strength and resources to launch the offensive. However, the liberation of our homeland may be several months following that.
DW: Are you considering military liberation of the swallowed Crimea?
Arestovic: It depends on the quantity and quality of weapons that will be provided. If we gain an advantage that allows us to liberate Crimea without major losses, why not do it? However, President Zelensky has said that it will be a very difficult battle, and even if we succeed, there will be huge losses. He said we should push the Russians back at least to the borders before February 23, and the fate of Crimea and other territories occupied by the Russians for eight years should be resolved politically and diplomatically.
Mind you, if we can push the Russians back to their pre-23 February borders, it will be a great failure for them. In this case, instead of negotiating terms with them, we order them to accept our terms. That would be Ukraine’s negotiation from a position of strength.
Interviewee: Arestovic is an adviser to Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, in charge of strategic communications in the field of national security and defense. He was a spokesman for the Ukrainian delegation of the Minsk Tripartite Contact Group.
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