“The godfather”, “the kingmaker”, “the boss”: the nicknames are not lacking to designate Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigerian politician as influential as controversial, designated Wednesday candidate of the ruling party for the presidential election of 2023.
“Those who did not support me, you have nothing to fear. I will build the best nation for our children”, assured Mr. Tinubu following his victory in the primary of the Congress of Progressives (APC) organized in Abuja, the capital.
This wealthy 70-year-old Muslim, an ardent defender of democracy in exile during the military dictatorship of the 1990s, climbed all the political levels through accusations of corruption, without ever being convicted.
Former senator then governor of Lagos, the economic lung of the most populous country in Africa, the historic leader of the ruling party now covets the highest step: to become president, “the ambition of a lifetime”.
“It’s my time, I’m educated, I have experience. It’s my turn,” he insisted in early June.
And already in January, Mr. Tinubu slipped in front of journalists in Abuja: “I have not seen written anywhere that a kingmaker cannot be king”.
Because this man in the shadows hidden under his traditional Yoruba hat has retained considerable influence in his native region of the south-west following eight years (1999-2007) at the helm of Lagos, a megalopolis of 20 million inhabitants.
A fine strategist, he has always been perceived as the man behind all the political appointments in his stronghold while clientelism remains omnipresent in Nigeria, even boasting of having elected President Buhari.
– “Out of ideas” –
For many in Nigeria, the influence of the historic leader of the Congress of Progressives (APC) propelled Mr Buhari President in 2015 and secured his re-election in 2019. Rightly or wrongly, it was his greatest success that accentuated its weight on the Nigerian political spectrum.
Especially since it was the first democratic alternation at the head of Nigeria, since the end of the military dictatorships and the return of democracy in 1999. In 2015, the APC put an end to the reign of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), in power for 16 years.
But, as leader of the APC, Bola Tinubu is weakened by the more than mixed record of President Buhari, who is ending his second term under fire from critics.
The former putschist general, who announced that he would not stand for a third term, was unable to stem the widespread violence between jihadist groups in the north-east, criminal gangs in the center and north-west and separatist unrest in the southeast.
Not to mention the economic slump and, of the 220 million inhabitants, the approximately 80 million Nigerians who still live below the extreme poverty line.
“The boss” can therefore appear as “belonging to an old political class short of ideas, present for too long on the political scene, which is seen as a fault”, explains Udo Jude Ilo, of the Open Society Initiative for West Africa (Osiwa).
– “Me first” –
Especially following the bloody crackdown on a peaceful protest in Lagos in 2020 that exposed the divide between a youth hungry for change – 60% of Nigerians are under 25 – and an elderly elite, personified by the president (79).
Especially since Bola Tinubu will be opposed during the presidential election to Atiku Abubakar, a 75-year-old former vice-president and candidate of the PDP, the main opposition party.
And in a video published by the local press, Mr. Tinubu launched to the youth: “You too will age, you will become president but I will be president first.”
“He is also a controversial figure because of allegations of corruption, although he has many supporters who consider him a visionary,” continues Mr. Jude Ilo.
After stepping down as Governor of Lagos, Mr Tinubu was indicted and later cleared of corruption, money laundering and having more than a dozen overseas accounts.
His fortune – the exact source and amount of which are unknown – is widely talked regarding: he is considered one of the richest men in the country, having shares in many companies, from the media to aviation, including hotels and real estate.