The UN recently launched negotiations to tackle plastic waste pollution. But in a report published Friday, June 3, the OECD estimates that the production of plastic and the associated waste will increase sharply by 2060, even if strong framework measures are taken at the global level. If nothing is done, the production of plastic will almost triple compared to 2019, from 460 million tonnes to 1,231 million tonnes, and that of plastic waste will increase in the same proportions, from 353 to 1,014 million tonsaccording to this document titled “Global Plastics Outlook: Scenarios for Action to 2060”.
The hundreds of millions of tons of waste produced each year, which degrades into micro-plastics, are found in all the oceans of the globe, in the sea ice, in the bodies of humans and other animals, and even in the air. taken from mountain tops. They thus play an important role in the collapse of biodiversity.
The UN launched negotiations for a global treaty once morest plastic pollution in early March. But the development of a text is not expected before 2024. In the meantime, the OECD has assessed two scenarios with reinforced measures covering the entire life cycle of plastics (production-use-recycling or disposal). ), as provided for in the mandate of the negotiators of the future international treaty. They might be implemented “for a relatively modest cost in relation to GDP”.
The first “regional action” scenario provides for differentiated commitments by country, with more ambitious measures for those in the OECD, which are wealthier. The second, “of global ambition”, envisages “a set of very rigorous measures intended to reduce global plastic discharges to a level close to zero by 2060”. But even in these two scenarios, the use of plastics and the production of waste are increasing sharply.
In “regional action”, the production of plastic would thus drop from 460 million tonnes to 1,018 million tonnes (i.e. 17% less than the level forecast if nothing is done) and that of waste would increase by 353 million tonnes. to 837 million tonnes (also -17%), estimates the OECD.
In both scenarios, only the quantities of “mismanaged waste” and “plastic waste” in the environment would fall in absolute value compared to the level of 2019.
The volume of mismanaged waste would increase from 79 million tons in 2019 to 59 million tons in 2060 in the regional scenario and to 6 million tons in the global scenario, once morest an increase to 153 million tons if nothing is done . Discharges into nature would decrease from 22 million tonnes to 20 million tonnes in the regional scenario and 6 million tonnes in the global scenario, once morest an increase to 44 million tonnes without any measures.
If nothing is done, the stocks already accumulated in aquatic environments would be multiplied by three for rivers and lakes (109 to 348 million tonnes) and by almost five in the oceans (30 to 145 million tonnes ).
