Although the political climate seems calm in Venezuela, all the political actors are moving in one direction: 2024. That year corresponds to the presidential elections and both the ruling party and the opposition need to convince the voters.
According to the latest polls by the independent pollster Datincorp, 61.3 percent of Venezuelans do not want a candidate from Chavismo or opposed to it, but rather what is known as an “outsider.” If this trend continues, this puts both sides in a bind.
Maduro Strategy
But the lead has already been taken by the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), which since last year has been showing signs of some changes and trying to give the best image. With the primaries that he held in August 2021, he not only showed the muscle of his machinery, but also the rough edges within the organization founded by Hugo Chávez.
The party, through Diosdado Cabello, first vice president, announced a few days ago the restructuring of the organization through the sectoral vice presidencies and heads in each state, which will also rotate.
Then Nicolás Maduro, who is the president of the PSUV, announced the names of the political bureau, which according to him is a “team of the highest level for the leadership of the Bolivarian revolution.”
In that team are Maduro, Diosdado Cabello, Cilia Flores, Delcy Rodríguez, Jorge Rodríguez, Tareck El Aissami, Héctor Rodríguez, Adán Chávez, Carmen Meléndez, Pedro Infante, Diva Guzmán, Nahum Fernández and Francisco Torrealba. The majority allied to the president and not to Cabello.
It is “a blow to cabalism,” says the former director of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Andrés Caleca, who also believes that “Maduro imposes himself with all his internal power, as he had already done in the government, in the TSJ, the CNE and in the FAN. A kind of total power in the face of 2024.”
The structure of chavismo-madurismo goes beyond the government party and there is only one person who brings together all the power: Maduro.
“And it’s not just regarding being the head of the regime, but also regarding the management it has had to displace its enemies, both external and internal,” or at least that’s what the political scientist at the Central University of Venezuela, Walter Molina, believes. who also includes in those enemies the former president of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), Rafael Ramírez, requested by the country’s authorities, but who resides in Italy.
Maduro’s performance
That power of Maduro and good government has been extended with the small economic turnaround and the president’s apparent concern for the problems of citizens. Now, through an application called VenApp, citizens can report problems in their communities.
“I call on you, Venezuelan woman and man, help me end the mental blockade of the bureaucrats and the indolent. This is a job that we must do together, we are here to listen and serve you. Participate, through Line “58” of the VenApp!” Said the ruler through Twitter.
At the beginning of the year, Maduro began this process of “cleaning” his image when several mayors and members of the PSUV involved in drug trafficking and fuel smuggling were jailed.
For Sergio Sánchez, a member of the Movement for Democracy, which brings together dissident Chavistas, all this restructuring shows that Maduro’s “rival” is Cabello and that is why the new decisions have come to take power away from him because “he is the only one who might divide the Psuv”, especially now when “inside there is tension regarding the candidate for 2024 because Diosdado wants to be”.
opposition primaries
While the PSUV advances, the Venezuelan opposition seems to be lagging behind. Although they have already announced that primaries will be held in 2023 for 2024, they have not yet reached important agreements.
Nicmer Evans, who promoted the attempted referendum once morest Maduro, announced that he will be a presidential candidate, as will Antonio Ecarri, who participated in the last regional elections.
It is expected that in the coming days more parties will announce the names of the candidates. It is not known if they will all go to primaries.
The danger of the “outsider”
The requirement of an outsider, revealed by the Datincorp survey, has two readings, one electoral and the other political. Jesus Seijas, president of the pollster, considers that if this trend continues, the phenomenon of Rodolfo Hernández, that candidate who does not identify with the system, might occur in Venezuela.
“Until now no one has emerged,” emphasizes Seijas, believing that if that figure does not appear, the country would be in the presence of a strong abstention in the 2024 presidential elections. “The dangerous thing is that the outsiders are sometimes worse than the disease , sometimes they are improvised, they don’t know regarding politics and that’s not good”, warns Seijas.
Outside doors Maduro and Cabello show brotherhood and camaraderie. Unlike the opposition, Chavismo always shows “unity” and discipline in terms of decisions and behavior. Although they have not stated who the candidate will be, so far everything points to the repetition of Maduro in the race.
