There have never been so many apartments for sale in Greater Santiago. The contraction in demand, due to local and international uncertainty and the rising cost of financing, and the growing supply in recent years led to a historic figure at the end of the first quarter, according to the latest report from the real estate management platform TocToc .com. “Supply reaches a new historical peak in apartments, with more than 66 thousand units for sale,” says the report.
Specifically, as of March the industry had for sale 66,646 apartments in Greater Santiagoand 3.2% more than at the end of 2021 and 14.6% over the same quarter of 2021, when the figure reached 58 thousand units. The offer this year doubles the figure of eight years ago: in December 2014 there were 32,963 apartments on offer, according to TocToc. Of the 66 thousand apartments for sale, 19.2% have immediate delivery, 71.8% are green and 9% are white.
In houses, the offer totals 7,308 available units, 20.9% more than last year. With this, the total supply of new homes totaled almost 74 thousand units, 14.9% more than a year ago, pushed by the departments.
The market for the purchase and sale of homes contracted in the first quarter and according to TocToc there was a crisis of expectations for the purchase of houses. The foregoing since while the supply of loans by financial entities moderated its contraction, becoming less restrictive than in the last quarter of 2021, the demand for mortgage loans continued to decline, deepening its low dynamism.
Likewise, the quotes on the Toctoc site in the last quarter have been directed to the search for rent over sales: 61% of the queries were for rent and 26% for the purchase of a new home. In the first quarter of 2021, the relationship was inverse: 61% of the contributions were directed to the purchase of new homes. At the same time, TocToc.com highlights, the survey of consumer expectations shows that the intention to purchase a home has fallen to its lowest level in the last decade.
Thus, considering the total sale of homes, the first quarter of 2022 closed with a contraction of 24.3% compared to the last quarter of 2021 and a drop of 45.3% compared to the period January-March 2021, measured in units. In value, the drop is 42.6% in twelve months.
That, in addition, had an impact on prices, which in March fell 2.1% in houses, compared to February, and fell 1.1% in apartments. In one year, the latter have advanced only 4.18%.
With all those considerations, TocToc.com projects three scenarios for 2022: one optimistic, one pessimistic and one neutral. In the first, the drop in units will be 17% compared to 2021, while in the pessimistic one, the decline is close to 40%. In the neutral projection, the study estimates that the real estate market in Greater Santiago would sell an estimated 98 million in UF, falling 27.8% compared to 2021. The above would translate into the sale of 24,158 units.
Regarding the apartment market, according to the report, from January to March of this year, 3,706 units were sold, with the amount of sales for March slightly higher than for January and February. The figure is 42.5% lower than that of the first quarter of the previous year. In value, the industry fell the same percentage, to 13.9 million UF.
Considering the communes where the apartments sold are located, the ranking is once more led by Ñuñoa, followed by Santiago and La Florida. They are followed by Las Condes, Vitacura, La Cisterna, Lo Barnechea, Providencia, Macul and Central Station.
TocToc details that the building permits for apartments -those that are not yet for sale- add up to 334 and total 73,196 units, more than the current available offer. “52.28% of the apartments are concentrated in Ñuñoa, La Florida, Santiago and Cerrillos,” says TocToc.com regarding the future supply of apartments. Ñuñoa includes almost 13,000 new apartments according to building permits.
Regarding the housing market, the report found that At the end of the first quarter of this year, 1,060 units have been sold, with a growing trend in the three months -471 units were sold in March versus 264 in January-, but well below what was accumulated in the same period of 2021, where the total was 2,263.
The communes that lead home sales are Hill, Lampa and Lo Barnechea. They are followed by Las Condes, Padre Hurtado, Puente Alto, Buin, San Bernardo, La Florida and Maipú.
In value, so far in 2022 a total of 6 million UF have been sold in houses, this is 43.2% less than in the same period last year. Building permits in the housing market add up to 10,166 future units, with Colina with 2,965 of the total, followed by Padre Hurtado, Lampa and Puente Alto. “In the housing market, Colina regains first place in the ranking, leading both in the number of permits and in housing units,” the report highlights. Lampa leads in project density, with 10 large initiatives with an average of 178 houses each.
