“The rise in the international price of oil can impact the domestic market. Everything will depend on how much is exported: if a lot is exported, perhaps the producer can keep the prices locally a little lower. But in general terms, exports -although they exist and are being promoted more-, represent approximately 20% of the total Argentine production”, he pointed out to Scope Roberto Carnicer, Director of the Energy Area of the Faculty of Engineering of the Austral University, who added: “In other words, it will influence the domestic market and might add pressure to gasoline. Likewise, it is a problem that will have to be agreed between the producers and what YPF may define.”
Regarding the possibility of exporting, the specialist pointed out that, “Obviously, for Argentina it is a great opportunity and this is being demonstrated”. “So much so that, some readings realize that until the expansion of oil pipelines is completed, it can be mobilized by truck to the export centers. Obviously, it is a good opportunity. It is similar to the issue of gas, with the great advantage that crude oil does not have to be processed, it is extracted and exported. It’s a great opportunity.”
It is that, beyond the price of the last months, since Bank of America (BofA) Global Research warned days ago that the price of Brent might exceed $150 a barrel if there is a sharp contraction in Russian oil exports. “With our target of $120 a barrel for Brent now in sight, we believe a sharp contraction in Russian oil exports might push Brent beyond $150 a barrel,” the bank said in a note. of analysis.
“That the price reaches u$s150 seems a lot to me, but everything is possible in this changing world. The issue is going to be when we reach the European winter: then, yes, the gas natural”, Carnicer analyzed in this regard.
international scene
During the day on Tuesday it transpired that some OPEC member countries were studying the idea of suspending Russia’s participation in an oil production deal.
“While there was no formal push for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to pump more oil to make up for any potential Russian shortfall, some Gulf members had begun planning a production increase sometime in the next few monthss,” the Wall Street Journal reported, citing OPEC delegates.
“Russia’s suspension from OPEC+ might be a precursor for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to use their spare production capacitybecause they would feel that they no longer have a quota agreement that needs to recognize Russia’s interest,” an analyst told Archyde.com.
local impact
At the beginning of May, the oil companies carried out the third increase of the year in the price of fuels at the pumps nationwide. It was an average increase of 10%, which was added to those that had been made in February and March.
The latest rise, as various analysts pointed out, has an impact on inflation, both directly and indirectly. In fact, some estimates show that the rise of an average of 10% in fuels directly adds an increase of 0.4% to the CPI for May. Although it also impacts the costs of providing services and some value chains, the effect of which will be seen in the coming months.