In just 2 trading days, Taiwan stocks soared by more than 640 points, and foreign capital also bought more than 48.9 billion yuan at the same time. TSMC (2330-TW) closed at the highest point of the day for 2 consecutive days, and the closing price of 547 yuan on 5/30 was also the highest point in nearly a month. Have Taiwan stocks gone too much without thinking? Zhang Yicheng, an analyst who used to work in the foreign trading room, said that he believes that there are actually the following points for reference:
First, foreign capital isFingering periodThe continuation of net long orders in goods, because foreign net long orders doubled to 9,212 on Friday (27th), which also boosted Taiwan stocks on Friday and Monday (30th). A total of 47.9 billion yuan of Taiwanese stocks are bought each day. Therefore, when foreign capital is serious regarding buying more, its influence is usually not to be underestimated. Foreign capital has sold 3,000 points of Taiwan stocks this year. After the market, the net long order of foreign futures dropped to 6,992 contracts. If the net long order of more than 5,000 contracts can continue to be maintained, Taiwan stocks may not be an escape wave.
second,Taiwan dollarcontinued strength andUS dollar indexDown, and this signal has a lagging effect at present, because when the Taiwan stock market still fell below 16,000 points last week, it actuallyTaiwan dollarIt’s been up for a few days,US dollar indexIt also fell back to around 102, but the Taiwan stock market was still in shock testing at that time, and the two-day surge was obviouslyTaiwan dollarstrong lag effect, so conversely,Taiwan dollarThe strength of the indicator has the meaning of leading indicators, pay attention toTaiwan dollarIf the heavy devaluation can be stopped, there is still room to look forward to the recovery of Taiwan stocks.Taiwan dollarIf the reversal turns into a sharp depreciation, it is necessary to be careful of foreign capital switching from buying to selling.
Third, the general economic news in June and the mood changes of the market panic, because it is now expected that the Central Bank of Taiwan, the US Fed, etc. will continue to tighten monetary policy in June, including the Fed will begin to reduce the balance sheet (shrinking balance sheet) As long as the market sentiment is not further turned into panic, the stock market has the opportunity to adapt, and then slowly rise according to the past cycle of interest rate hikes, because in 2004, the The stock market rose with the rate hike cycle of 2015, so it is worth following up. For more foreign legal person information and instant messages, you can lock the LINE fan group of Zhang Yicheng analyst.
[Analyst Zhang Yicheng – Foreign Capital Super-money Line]
Experience: Master of Finance from Peking University, worked in the foreign-funded Citi Taipei trading room, and the former foreign-funded Barclays Hong Kong trading room
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