The head of the Economic Research Institute (Wifo), Gabriel Felbermayr, warns of chaos in Austria in the autumn if the federal government does not decide now how Russia’s gas should be rationed and distributed in the event of a supply stop. In addition, Wifo is increasing its inflation forecast for this year from 5.8 to 6.5 percent, according to Felbermayr on Sunday in the ORF “Press Hour”. Social benefits should automatically be adjusted to the high inflation.
“We might be better informed,” said the economist when asked what he knew regarding the plans of the turquoise-green federal government for gas rationing and distribution that might be necessary. “We don’t really know the details either.” However, it is urgent and needs to be determined now how the energy can be directed. “There is a risk that we will experience chaos in the fall.”
From Felbermayr’s point of view, priority sectors should be defined – first of all and without restrictions households, gas in electricity and food production, hospitals, social services – and within the sectors it must then be further specified how the distribution is distributed there. Felbermayr suggested that auctions might be used here.
“If you think that in the heat of the moment you can determine the distribution democratically, then you will be surprised,” said Felbermayr. “Who should then be turned off in which industry?” he asked in the direction of the government. To say that “everyone gets 30 percent less would not be good from an economic point of view. The costs will be much higher if the rationing of gas ends in chaos,” warned the Wifo boss and warned several times to prepare “now” because there are of course many questions regarding it to give any auctions.
Get a sector regarding 10 percent less gas, belong considered where this is to be saved within the sector. And for this it need accompanying measures at the auctions that not more liquid diet weak but important business away empty. For liquidity, banks were asked to Felbermayr.
Due to the high inflation, consideration should be given to adjusting social benefits during the year. In general, Felbermayr spoke out in favor of indexing social benefits such as family allowances, minimum income and care allowances and automatically adjusting them to inflation, since “we will not come back to the low rates that we were used to”. Counter-financing might be an inheritance tax, which is treated as a “sacred cow” in Austria.
reiterated in the oil Felbermayr states that should be better taken place in import tariffs for new business, the Wifo point of view instead of an embargo. Of Russian crude oil to hang in Austria only indirectly have gone regarding products from Germany in the Alpine republic. Much more important for Austria’s crude oil from Kazakhstan. As long as this gelange here, the impact of an oil embargo are low, Felbermayr. But: That depends on the territory of Russia. “And if the Russians no longer permit because of an embargo, we would have in Austria a problem.” An oil embargo once morest Russia would leave inflation at any rate rise by another 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points, the economist.
Once once more, Felbermayr called for an end or a reduction in cold progression. In this way, the Minister of Finance can help make collective bargaining easier in the fall. You also have to look at the non-wage labor costs as a whole. The reorganization of unemployment insurance is currently being prepared anyway.
“It will certainly be difficult,” said the Wifo boss on the autumn wage round. Because the high inflation is not homemade. Because if you now talk regarding the fact that 12 billion euros of purchasing power in Austria is regarding to disappear, then the sum does not go to Austrian companies but almost entirely abroad, “into the coffers of the oil sheikhs and so on”. So, turning off or lowering the cold progression helps and relieves the work factor overall.
While more employer-friendly economists such as IV chief economist Christian Helmstein in their view excessive wage settlements last before a warning wage-price spiral, speaking employee more of the opposite. Only today reiterated AK-chief economist Markus Marterbauer in “Courier”: “If anything, it should read price-wage spiral.” the union is also part argues. PRO-GE boss and SPÖ politician Rainer Wimmer says the newspaper to wage negotiations also that companies might pass on inflation to their customers, but workers might not pass by inflation. Of course, the companies say that price increases one always can be passed only delayed difficult-to-one and above all. (apa)