The melancholy of the Erdogan administration, whose approval rating cannot be expected to recover even with clever diplomacy
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(Yosuke Tsuchida: Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting, Deputy Senior Researcher)
Turkey is taking full advantage of its geopolitical advantage. On May 15, Scandinavian Finland and Sweden reviewed their long-standing policy of neutral diplomacy and applied for membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). NATO Secretary-General Stortemberg welcomed the application for accession between the two countries, but the only opposition is Turkey, led by President Erdogan.
Turkey cites both countries as “supporting terrorist organizations” as reasons for opposition to Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO. There are many Kurdish refugees in both countries, some of whom belong to Turkey’s designated terrorist organizations. Turkey argues that it cannot support NATO accession between the two countries as long as it hides terrorists.
NATO accession requires the unanimous consent of the current member countries. Therefore, Finland and Sweden cannot join NATO unless Turkey changes its position. However, Turkey’s true demand is believed to be the relaxation of sanctions imposed on Turkey by Western countries. Specifically, it seems that it wants to guide the withdrawal of the arms embargo by Western countries.
Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO has great political significance in showing that the West is united in dealing with Russia. Turkey is putting pressure on the West to see through such Western ideas. This “conditional struggle” is in favor of Turkey, and Europe and the United States cannot make a strong appearance.
