Is it already the effect of inflation or a simple normalization following two exceptional years on the savings front? In April, the net collection of Livret A accounts amounted to 1.87 billion euros, down 37% compared to April 2021 , according to figures released Thursday by the Caisse des dépôts et consignations. Combined with that of the Sustainable and Solidarity Development Booklet (LDDS), the collection amounts to 2.3 billion euros.
“We find the pre-crisis levels,” explains Philippe Crevel, director of the Cercle de l’Epargne. The month of April is traditionally a collection month for the Livret A. The two previous years were exceptional in this respect. In April 2020, the effect of the first confinement was fully felt, with collection jumping to 5.47 billion euros for the Livret A.
In April 2021, once morest the backdrop of the health crisis, the French had continued to fill their woolen stockings but to a lesser extent, the Livret A still garnering 2.9 billion euros. This year, the collection therefore seems to be returning to a more classic trend, even slightly lower than that of April 2019. That month, the Livret A had garnered 1.9 billion euros.
Boosted by the rate hike
Cumulatively, however, the 2022 vintage has for the moment nothing to envy to the beginning of 2019. Thanks to the anticipation of the increase in the rate of remuneration of regulated savings accounts, which rose in February from 0.5 % to 1%, the Livret A and the LDDS began to fill up in January. Collection thus reached a cumulative 16.25 billion euros over the first four months of 2022, compared to 18.4 billion in 2021 but 12.13 billion in 2019.
Total Livret A and LDDS outstandings thus reached 485.9 billion euros at the end of April 2022.
However, has the “rate hike” effect already run out of steam? “It faded a little faster than usual, in two months, recognizes Philippe Crevel. Usually, the effect lasts three to four months”.
Faced with galloping inflation of 4.8% in April, French households might be tempted to dip into their savings to maintain their standard of living. This is what happened in the followingmath of the oil shocks in the 1980s. INSEE indicators show that a large part of the French would like to strengthen their precautionary savings.
“For the moment, they do not draw on their savings, even they tend to strengthen it”, supports Philippe Crevel, for whom the second half is likely to be a completely different period. Between inflation and the rise in spending to finance summer holidays, regulated savings books are on the contrary likely to melt.
Barring a further rate hike on 1is August, which would be justified by the rise in inflation. “If the rate is raised to 1.8% or 2%, collection might rebound in the second part of the year,” said the expert. A question that will very quickly arise for the new government, which will however have to keep an eye on the balance between savings and consumption. In the first quarter, it fell by 1.3%.
