Oil on pause, caught in headwinds

Around 11:45 am, Brent lost 0.24% to 111.77 dollars. WTI fell 0.33% to $111.84.

Oil prices were stabilizing on Friday, stuck in a high price range, between fears of a recession that would erode demand and worries regarding insufficient supply with the looming European embargo and hopes of unlocking in China .

Around 09:45 GMT (11:45 CET), a barrel of Brent from the North Sea for delivery in July lost 0.24% to 111.77 dollars.

A barrel of US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in June, which is the last trading day, fell 0.33% to 111.84 dollars.

“Oil is trading lower…following a volatile Thursday session that saw prices swing from losses to gains on US dollar weakness and growing hopes that China may begin to ease. some of its health restrictions from June 1 in Shanghai”, comments Victoria Scholar, analyst at Interactive investor.

“The prospect of a ban on Russian oil by the European Union has been a floor for crude prices lately,” she explains.

However, the EU is still struggling to impose an embargo, facing resistance from Hungary, which is particularly dependent on Russian oil.

“However, central bank tightening and fears of a global recession kept oil from rising, and due to these conflicting pressures (despite the volatility), it remained largely stuck in a range,” continues Victoria Scholar. .

“Oil price support might be eroded by further evidence of recession or by a surprise intervention by OPEC+ to accelerate its production restoration plans,” said Exinity analyst Han Tan.

“Supply disruptions are also likely to persist as long as the conflict in Ukraine rages, which preserves the favorable environment for oil prices,” he argues, however.

The price of European natural gas lost more than 7% over the week, falling below the 90 euro per megawatt hour mark.

“The supply situation is easing as deliveries from Russian gas pipelines have increased slightly once more thanks to higher flows via Ukraine,” said Barbara Lambrecht of Commerzbank.

In addition, the European Parliament and the Council – representing the Twenty-Seven – reached an agreement on Thursday on a regulation providing that the Member States fill their gas reserves to “at least 80%” of their capacity by November. This minimum level will be increased to 90% for the following winter periods, in order to guarantee sufficient supply to the EU.

The Dutch TTF, the benchmark for the European natural gas market, was on Friday at 89.70 euros per MWh.

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