column
2022.05.18
22nd at Tokyo RacecourseOaks(GI, turf 2400m) will be held.This year’s Oka Sho horseStars on EarthAt the top of the list, he showed a different dimension of running at the Forgotten Grass Award.Art house2 years old of the queenCircle of lifeAiming for a comeback from the 2nd Oka ShoWater NavilleraIn addition to winning Flora SErika VitaWill also participate.
Focusing on the most popular, Sodashi, who had a win of 1.9 times last year, cried at the wall of distance and lost to 8th place, but from 2014 to 2020 he never missed the match and won 5 consecutive wins from 2016. The reliability is quite high as it was. Although it is a race that is basically decided firmly, last year the 16th popular Hagino Pilina rushed, and the trifecta payout exceeds 500,000, so it is a race that you want to be careful regarding the rough strings.
This time, the “dangerous popular horse” of Oaks is the Oka Sho horse.Stars on Earthis.
■ The key to the development of the art house
Although he won the 2-year-old unwinning race in October last year, he was unable to win the horse race with 3rd place in the Akamatsu Award, 2nd place in the Fairy S, and 2nd place in the Queen C. It was a low rating of popularity. Perhaps her defeat in the short run became her “food”, and in the race she accelerated powerfully without being frightened, despite the disadvantage of being hit from the inside in a straight line. He caught the water Navillera that had escaped earlier and won the long-sought GI title.
I will challenge the second crown as an Oka Sho horse, but due to the pedigree background that my father has a 2015 derby horse Duramente and my aunt has a 2017 Oaks horse Soul Stirring, the change of stage to Tokyo 2400m is rather welcome. Kuchi. Furthermore, if you switch to Lemaire jockey who knows the back of his aunt (Soul Stirring), he is just a demon and a gold rod. The “Queen’s throne” cannot be surrendered.
However, there are two points of data that may cause anxiety this time. It is “not a continuous riding” and “the existence of a new art house”.
First of all, on the stage of Oaks, the performance of horses that “change this time” is overwhelmingly poor. In the past 10 years, continuous riding has marked a win rate of 7.9% and a consecutive rate of 14.0% with[9-7-8-90]but the transfer is[1-3-2-58]with a win rate of 1.6% and a consecutive rate. The rate drops sharply to 6.3%. This is because in Oaks, where you cannot win the glory unless everything is engaged, you must grasp the “horse habit” and “use of the legs” to maximize the power of the horse.
No matter how much Lemaire jockey who rides this time leads his grandmother to Oaks horse, he rides on a completely different horse, so I can not hope very much. And next is the existence of “art house”.
Arthouse ran for the Erica Award following winning the new horse race in October last year, but lost to 6th place due to lack of agreement. Run, stretch out the last leg from the straight line, and finish 2nd and 3 horses. The winning time of 2 minutes 00 seconds 3 was also excellent, but what should be noted is the lap composition.
・ Forget-me-not (winning time 2: 00: 3)
└12 seconds 6-11 seconds 3-12 seconds 8-12 seconds 6-12 seconds 3-12 seconds 3-12 seconds 0-11 seconds 7-11 seconds 6-11 seconds 1
In this way, from the 3rd halon “12 seconds 8” to the last “11 seconds 1”, 8 halon continues to step on the “acceleration lap” that continues to rise without dropping the lap, and the last 1 halon But it was a different dimension of running that accelerated 0 seconds and 5 seconds.
By carving this monster-like rap, it became a powerful figure in Oaks, but each camp will assemble a deployment to stop this monster. In other words, with the participation of “Art House”, it is expected that the lap composition and development will be completely different from the Oka Sho.
Up to this point, Stars on Earth has been treated as a “monosashi horse” on the 3-year-old mare line, but even though it has free leg quality regardless of deployment, the art house has become a race development that crushes the front. Sometimes, when the jockey who rides a ten rides is taken into consideration, it is more likely that he will use his legs to destroy them, and he will not be able to use the gutsy end legs and the dexterous legs that handle Magun, which he showed at the Oka Sho.
Considering the betting ticket-like taste here, Stars on Earth, a popular corner, is called “Erase“.If you imagine the member composition of this year and the pace along the way, I mentioned above.Art houseFocusing onCynthia Wish(Lottery target),Erika Vita、Water Navillera、Circle of lifeWe would like to evaluate horses that can race from a certain position and can react instantly even at a high pace.
◆[Oaks 2022 / Popularity Trend]The most popular win rate is 50%, and the win rate is “double digit”.
◆[Oaks 2022 / Previous Rote]Warning to Circle of Life and Namur “Oka Sho 4th place or less …”
◆[Oaks 2022 / Leg quality tendency]Pay attention to the “position” of the Oka Sho horse.
Written by Koki Nishikan (SPREAD editorial department)
