[출처 = 키움증권 HTS]
Spring passes and summer approaches, but the KOSPI is frozen. The index fluctuated sharply on the 10th as concerns regarding US tightening intensified.
Recently, the KOSPI has shown that investor sentiment is shaken by external issues rather than the inherent momentum being reflected in the index. Accordingly, securities experts are making an analysis that it is necessary to keep in mind the possibility that the KOSPI will slide to the 2550 level.
KOSPI shakes with the global stock market
On the 10th, the KOSPI closed at 2596.56, down 14.25 points (0.55%) from the previous day. The decline in the early trading session was even greater in the followingmath of the sharp decline in the US stock market. The biggest reason for the decline in global stock markets is the fear of an economic downturn.
As global investor sentiment deteriorated in general on that day, major Asian stock markets opened with sharp declines, and the Korean stock market might not avoid a sharp decline.
However, it is analyzed that the fall of the KOSPI might be reduced as the Chinese stock market turned to an uptrend, US index futures rose, and individuals switched to intra-day net buying due to the influence of the perception of oversold the day before.
The typhoon has passed today, but tomorrow’s situation is unknown. Concerns regarding inflation and economic recession are high, given that there is still no sign of inflation in major countries such as the US.
For the domestic stock market to rebound, in the end, inflation is the most important factor, analysts analyze.
Stock market “KOSPI bottom 2550 line … Expected volatility stock market for the time being”
Lee Seung-woo, head of Eugene Investment & Securities’ research center, said, “Considering the current interest rate level, further declines are limited.”
All of the points presented are still highly uncertain. Concerns regarding inflation persisted, and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was expecting a comment on the end of the war on Victory Day, didn’t say anything.
Yoo Seung-chang, head of research center at KB Securities, said that there is a need to be wary of pessimism, but that it is difficult for the stock market to find stability right away.
“Monetary policy uncertainty continues, but further declines are limited in that much of it is reflected in the financial market,” said Yoo. looked forward
In response, Chang-Yong Yoon, head of Shinhan Investment’s research center, said, “The lower end of the KOSPI band is considered to be around 2550 in consideration of monthly volatility in an index that combines PER (Price to Earnings Ratio) of 10x and PBR (Price Net Asset Ratio) of 1x.” “Stock market volatility Even if this additional expansion is extended, the decline in the Korean stock market will remain relatively solid.”
The reason for this outlook is that Korea has recently maintained a low relative PER compared to the US. Director Yoon added, “We are defending once morest concerns regarding margin decline with sales growth and strong won-equivalent exports.”
“In order to ride the KOSPI upward trend… we need to find price stability following the war”
Meanwhile, securities experts agreed that the most important things for the KOSPI to find stability in the future are ending the war in Ukraine, stabilizing prices in the US, and ending China’s zero-corona policy.
Yoon Chang-yong, head of the center, said, “For a reversal of the stock market, monetary policy uncertainty must be resolved first.”
“It is important whether there is enough downward pressure on inflation to weaken the pace of tightening,” he said.
Lee Kyung-soo, head of research center at Meritz Securities, said, “The KOSPI rise will be possible when performance and price uncertainty, which are factors that put pressure on the index, are close.” It is expected to be rough.”
Yoo Seung-chang, head of the center, also analyzed, “The transition to a calm phase in the Russia-Ukraine war, stabilization of price indexes, and China’s easing of blockade measures are prerequisites for stabilizing the KOSPI.”
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