In the state elections in the northern German state of Schleswig-Holstein, initial forecasts indicate a clear victory for the ruling Christian Democrats. According to calculations by the television stations ARD and ZDF, the CDU of the popular Prime Minister Daniel Günther comes to 41 to 43 percent (2017: 32.0 percent). The previously co-governing Greens improved to 17.0 to 19.5 percent (2017: 12.9 percent).
The opposition Social Democrats, who govern Germany at the federal level, fell to 15.5 to 16 percent (2017: 27.3 percent). This is the worst SPD result in this state so far. The SPD last provided the prime minister from 2012 to 2017.
AFD might fly out
The FDP (Liberals), which also governs, performed significantly weaker than five years ago and gained 7.0 percent (2017: 11.5 percent). The right-wing populist AfD would no longer be represented in parliament in Kiel with 4.5 to 4.9 percent (2017: 5.9 percent). It would be the first time that the party, which was founded in 2013 and is currently represented in all state parliaments, has been expelled from a state parliament.
The South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW), the party of the Danish minority, won 6.0 percent (2017: 3.3 percent). He would be exempt from the five percent hurdle for entry into the state parliament.
According to ARD, the forecasts would result in the following distribution of seats in the state parliament: CDU 34 seats, Greens 13, SPD 12, FDP 5, SSW 5. Günther would only just miss the absolute majority.
SPD without chancellor bonus
According to the findings of the pollsters, the CDU was able to benefit above all from Günther’s popularity. The 48-year-old is one of the Prime Ministers with the highest popularity ratings nationwide. According to ARD, 74 percent of those surveyed said that he represented the interests of the country well. The Greens, in turn, also benefited from the popularity of the Federal Economics Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who came from Schleswig-Holstein.
With Thomas Losse-Müller, the SPD had sent a largely unknown top candidate into the running in Schleswig-Holstein. Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s party was unable to get a “Chancellor Bonus”.
More important elections in the coming weeks
Günther had said before the election that he wanted to continue the “Jamaica” coalition with the Greens and the FDP. Given the strength of the CDU, however, he will only need one coalition partner. The FDP is ideologically closer to the CDU than the eco-party.
The election in the relatively small federal state with 2.9 million inhabitants was the second of four state elections in Germany this year. Elections will be held next Sunday in North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state, and in Lower Saxony in October. In March, the SPD won the state elections in Saarland with an absolute majority, ending decades of CDU rule there.
The forecasts mean a backing for the new German CDU leader Friedrich Merz. At the end of January he took over the leadership of the party and in mid-February also the chairmanship of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. The Christian Democrats hope that a strong performance in the north will also provide tailwind for the elections in North Rhine-Westphalia in a week’s time. There, too, the CDU is the head of government. However, it leads in the polls just ahead of the SPD. The previous CDU-FDP coalition in Düsseldorf would no longer have a majority.
