The fever for the Gyeonggi governor election, which is a proxy battle between President-elect Yoon Seok-yeol and Lee Jae-myung, a permanent adviser of the Democratic Party, is getting fiercer. People’s Strength candidate Kim Eun-hye, who had shown a trend of declining approval ratings following the intra-party primary was over, has been on the rise once more from the end of April, and is in a situation of ‘super close’ with Democratic Party candidate Kim Dong-yeon within the margin of error.
In the early stage, poll results showed that candidate Kim Dong-yeon was ahead of candidate Kim Eun-hye, but as of April 27-28, several results showed that candidate Kim Eun-hye outranked candidate Kim Dong-yeon within the margin of error.
In a survey conducted by Real Meter and Korea Research, Candidate Eun-hye Kim was slightly ahead within the margin of error.
However, in a poll conducted by K-Stat Research during the same period, Candidate Dong-yeon Kim outperformed Candidate Eun-hye Kim within the margin of error.
Kim Eun-hye, ‘slight advantage’ within the margin of error in Realmeter and Korea Research
The first public opinion poll that showed signs of a rebound for candidate Kim Eun-hye was a support survey conducted by Realmeter on the 27th and 28th of last month on 1,010 men and women over the age of 18 living in Gyeonggi-do following being commissioned by the Asian economy.
In this survey, candidate Kim Eun-hye (43.9%) showed a slight advantage over candidate Kim Dong-yeon (43.3%). However, the gap between the two candidates was only 0.6%p, which was within the margin of error (±3.1%p at 95% confidence level).
In a poll conducted by Korea Research at the request of KBS, candidate Kim Eun-hye showed a slight edge within the margin of error.
From the 29th of last month to the 1st of May, in a survey conducted on 800 men and women over the age of 18 in each region in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon, Daejeon, Chungnam, and Gangwon, candidate Kim Eun-hye was selected as the 38.7% of the respondents chose the candidate, and 35.6% of the respondents chose Kim Dong-yeon. The gap between the two candidates was 3.1%p, which was within the margin of error (±3.5%p at the 95% confidence level).
Even when asked regarding the possibility of winning, the gap between the two candidates was very narrow at 1.1 percentage points. 38.0% answered ‘I think Kim Eun-hye will be elected’ and 36.9% said ‘I think Kim Dong-yeon will be the candidate’.
In a survey conducted by Case Stat Research at the request of the Chosun Ilbo and TV Chosun, it was found that candidate Kim Dong-yeon was ahead within the margin of error. As a result of a survey of the approval ratings for the Gyeonggi Governor candidate of 804 men and women over the age of 18 living in Gyeonggi-do from the 29th of last month to the 1st of this month, candidate Kim Dong-yeon was 45% and Kim Eun-hye was 41%. The difference in approval ratings between the two candidates was 4%p, showing a close battle within the margin of error (3.5%p at 95% confidence level).
By age, Candidate Dong-yeon Kim in their 20s and 50s and Eun-hye Kim in their 60s and 70s dominated, respectively. Candidate Dong-yeon Kim gained 64.7% of the votes of those in their 40s, greatly beating out Candidate Eun-hye Kim (21.0%), and even among those in their 20s and under, she received 43.5% of support, surpassing Candidate Eun-hye Kim with 32.3%.
On the other hand, Candidate Eun-hye Kim in their 60s received 73.4% and 65.8% of the support, respectively, far ahead of Candidate Dong-yeon Kim (22.4% and 28.5%).
In the virtual match, Eun-hye Kim 46.8%, Dong-yeon Kim 38.9%, Yong-seok Kang 9%
In a survey conducted by the Opinion Poll Process at the request of the Freedom Daily, it was found that candidate Kim Eun-hye outperformed candidate Kim Dong-yeon outside the margin of error.
According to the results of a survey of 1002 voters over the age of 18 in Gyeonggi Province on the 2nd, Candidate Eun-hye Kim received 46.8% of the vote, Dong-yeon Kim, who got 38.9%, and Candidate, Yong-seok Kang, who received 9.0%, the margin of error (95% confidence level). ±3.1%p) out-of-bounds.
Candidate Eun-hye Kim also showed the highest support in the virtual bilateral confrontation. In response to the question of ‘Candidate Eun-Hye Kim vs. Candidate Dong-Yeon Kim, which one do you support?’, Candidate Eun-hye Kim received 50.5% of the vote, and Candidate Dong-yeon Kim received 40.2% of the vote. It was found that Candidate Eun-hye Kim widened the gap with Candidate Dong-yeon Kim larger in the composition of a bilateral confrontation (+10.3%) than in the composition of a multilateral battle (+7.9%).
Excluding Candidate Eun-hye Kim, in the question of ‘Candidate Dong-yeon Kim vs. Candidate Yong-seok Kang, which one do you support?’, Candidate Dong-yeon Kim was ahead of Candidate Kang Yong-seok, who got 17.0% with 43.6% of the support. 24.5% answered that they supported other candidates, 9.7% answered ‘no’, and 5.3% answered ‘don’t know’.
For more information on the above polls, please refer to the website of the National Election Opinion Survey Deliberation Committee.
