Climate change will see thousands of new viruses spread among animals by 2070, likely increasing the risk of emerging infectious diseases jumping from animals to humans, a new study warns.
This is especially true in Africa and Asia, two continents that have been at the forefront of virus transmission from humans to animals, or vice−versa, in recent decades, particularly with respect to influenza, Ebola and the coronavirus.
The researchers, whose findings are published Thursday in the prestigious science journal Nature, used modeling to examine the potential migration of more than 3,000 species of mammals, and the sharing of viruses that might result, over the next 50 years if the planet is warming by 2 degrees Celsius, which is possible according to the most recent studies.
They found that cross-species virus exchange will occur more than 4000 times in mammals alone. Birds and marine animals were not part of the study.
Researchers clarify that not all viruses will make the leap to humans and that they will not all cause a pandemic of the same magnitude as the coronavirus, but the increase in the number of viruses that jump from one species to another also increases the risk of spread to humans.
The study highlights two global crises ― climate change and the spread of infectious diseases ― as the world grapples with how to deal with each.
Previous studies have looked at how deforestation, extinction and the wildlife trade lead to a spread from animals to humans, but research is sparser as to how climate change might influence such transmissions, explained Researchers.
«We don’t talk much regarding the climate in the context of zoonoses” ― diseases that can pass from animals to humans, said one of the study’s co-authors, biology professor Colin Carlson of Georgetown University. “Our study brings together the two most pressing crises we face.»
Climate change and infectious disease experts agree that a warmer planet will likely increase the risk of new viruses emerging.
Daniel R. Brooks, a biologist from the University of Nebraska, said the study illustrates the risk posed by climate change in terms of increased risk of infectious diseases.
«This particular contribution is an extremely conservative estimate of the potential” for the spread of new infectious diseases due to climate change.he warned.
Dr. Aaron Bernstein, acting director of the Center for Climate, Health, and the Global Environment at Harvard University, says the study confirms longstanding doubts regarding the impact of global warming on the emergence of infectious diseases .
«Note in particular that this study indicates that such encounters may already occur more frequently, in places where several people live.said Dr. Bernstein.
A co-author of the study, ecologist Gregory Albery of Georgetown University, said that since an emergence of infectious diseases caused by climate change is probably already happening, the planet must learn regarding it and prepare for deal.
«It’s not avoidable, even in the best-case scenario of climate change», a dit M. Albery.
Mr. Carlson, who also co-authored the most recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, recalled that we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions and phase out fossil fuels to reduce the risk spread of infectious diseases.
Jaron Browne, of the Grassroots Global Justice Alliance, said the study highlights the injustice that affects people in African and Asian nations.
«African and Asian nations are most at risk from rising exposure to the virus, illustrating yet once more how those on the front lines of the crisis are often least responsible for climate change“, he pointed out.
Drew Costley, The Associated Press
