For the last three trading days,RMBDepreciated sharply once morest the US dollar.
Data from the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center on April 22 showed that the same dayRMBCentral parity once morest the US dollarRMB 6.4596 once morest 1 US dollar, down for the third consecutive trading day, with a cumulative reduction of 876 basis points.
In the foreign exchange market, onshore and offshoreRMBThe spot exchange rate once morest the U.S. dollar also fell, both falling below 6.5, with a cumulative depreciation of more than 1,000 basis points in the three trading days.
Wang Chunying, deputy director of China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said on the 22nd: “These days,RMBChanges in the exchange rate once morest the US dollar are mainly affected by the international financial market trend and multiple factors of market supply and demand. “
At present, inflation in the United States is soaring, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) has frequently released hawkish signals, raising interest rates and shrinking the table far beyond market expectations, driving theUS dollar indexIt broke the 101 mark recently, and the US Treasury yields rose.
Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said that rising U.S. bond yields will attract cross-border capital back to the U.S., boost the U.S. dollar exchange rate, and put pressure on non-U.S. currencies, leading to rising global financing costs and aggravating foreign currency debt pressures.
recentlyJapanese Yen、EUROther major currencies also depreciated once morest the US dollar,Japanese YenIt also dropped to a 20-year low. Wang Youxin believes that,RMBThe depreciation of the exchange rate once morest the US dollar was partly affected by the strengthening of the US dollar, butJapanese Yenthe difference is,RMBSupported by economic fundamentals.
The co-chief economist of CITIC Securities clearly stated that by 2020,RMBdepreciation is similar,RMBThe pressure of exchange rate depreciation has increased, mainly due to the decline in economic fundamentals and the strengthening of the US dollar caused by the epidemic.Mingming said: “Supply chain disturbances are superimposedUS dollar indexup, or will make the short-termRMBunder pressure, but withoutRMBDepreciation expectations are formed. “
China Merchants Securities macroeconomic analyst Liu Yaxin believes that,RMBDevaluation pressure is likely to continue for some time. From the perspective of U.S. inflation and China’s economic fundamentals, factors such as U.S. inflation and economic fundamentals have not declined significantly. Although China’s “steady growth” policy has been partially effective, the epidemic has dragged down current economic activities and will have a negative impact on future “steady growth”. Brings challenges and is not expected to improve quickly.
Therefore, the narrowing and inversion of the Sino-US interest rate gap and the outflow of international capital may continue for a period of time, which may lead toRMBThe exchange rate continued to face depreciation pressure.
