Updated on 04/24/2022 10:12 am
- Two months ago, Kremlin chief Putin ordered an attack on Ukraine. However, the expected quick victory turned into a tough fight with thousands of dead.
- Ukraine is talking regarding a “failed blitzkrieg”.
- What military goals Russia has been unable to achieve over the past two months.
Thousands of dead, millions fleeing, destroyed houses and shot-up tanks: the balance sheet following two months of Russian war of aggression in the Ukraine is devastating. And peace is nowhere in sight. The fighting in the Donbass and in the devastated port city of Mariupol continues unabated. Many analysts and probably also the war strategists had in Moscow expected only a few days following which the leadership around the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would capitulate. It turned out differently.
“The Russian blitzkrieg has failed,” says the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, Andriy Yermak, summing up the situation from a Kiev perspective. “Our army and the people thwarted the Kremlin’s plans.” Early in the morning of February 24th of Russia president Wladimir Putin announced the start of a “special military operation” in a television speech. “The goal is to protect people who have been subjected to abuse and genocide for the past eight years,” he added, as Russian units crossed the border into the neighboring country from three sides.
Vladimir Putin’s war goals far away
Two months later, Putin is a long way from many targets – although he has ruthlessly fired on apartment blocks and industrial plants. From a military point of view, the invasion was probably only successful in the south. There it has managed to take a large part of the coastal areas. The Crimean Peninsula, annexed in 2014, now has land access to Russia. The most important trophy is the city of Mariupol, which Moscow says it largely controls – despite the ongoing resistance in the Azovstal steelworks by the Ukrainian fighters who remained there.
Also read: All current information on the war in Ukraine in the live ticker
More than 400,000 people lived in Mariupol before the war, but only a third of them remained following the destruction. Kyiv estimates that more than 20,000 residents were killed.
In the east, where the largest units of troops were assembled on both sides, the advance was sluggish. After two months, Russia has captured regarding 80 percent of the Luhansk region and half of the Donetsk region. Previously, the separatist republics occupied regarding a third of the area of both areas. In addition, there are larger gains in territory in the Kharkov region, which means that there is still a risk of Ukrainian troops being surrounded in the region.
Conquest of Kiev not in sight
In the north, on the other hand, the Russian advance reportedly ended in disaster. After weeks of heavy fighting with probably high losses, the Russian troops had to withdraw from northern Ukraine and the region around Kyiv – surprising for observers. A conquest of the capital is not in sight.
But the destruction is not only immense due to direct combat operations, but also due to Russian rocket attacks deep in the Ukrainian hinterland. The Ukrainian economy has collapsed by more than 30 percent. The leadership in Kyiv estimates the direct damage at more than 100 billion euros. Severe destruction is reported from the cities of Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv, which have been under siege for weeks. The infrastructure is broken. It is completely unclear when and by what means this can ever be rebuilt.
Then there are the many dead and injured. The extent of this is difficult to assess. The UN has so far recorded around 2,500 civilians killed and around 3,000 injured. However, due to the lack of access to large areas, the organization assumes that the number of civilian victims will be higher. Images of more than 400 civilians killed in the Kiev suburb of Bucha had caused horror around the world. Again and once more there are reports regarding possible mass graves.
Independent verification not possible: number of soldiers killed in the war unclear
Military casualties are also difficult to estimate. The Russian military leadership claims that more than 23,000 Ukrainian soldiers have already been killed. president Selenskyj speaks of regarding 3,000 killed Ukrainians. On the other hand, Moscow admits a little more than 1,000 of its own casualties, while Kyiv estimates Russian losses at more than 21,000 soldiers. As with most other information on wartime events, independent verification is hardly possible.
The war of aggression also has massive economic consequences for Russia. The sanctions are expected to push inflation to more than 20 percent and cause gross domestic product (GDP) to fall by regarding 10 percent. Half of the currency reserves are frozen. In addition, there are potential supply problems due to the withdrawal of Western companies.
A diplomatic agreement is still not in sight. Negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv are faltering. Although UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wants to mediate next week, he is not credited with greater influence. Other mediators before him have failed. And so it seems that even following two months of war both sides continue to rely on a military solution to the conflict – despite the devastating losses. (dpa/tar)