This, according to a report from the Barclays Research Unit explained by the economist Asdrúbal Oliveros.
According to a report by the Barclays Research Unit, explained by the economist Asdrúbal Oliveros, the economy in Venezuela might have a statistical rebound, and not a recovery.
“After losing 80% of its GDP, even growing at 10% per year, it would take 17 years for it to return to what it was at the beginning of the Maduro government,” the report indicates.
“Venezuela has the potential to grow at very high rates. But, to have sustainable growth, the country would need to have access to capital, which would require a debt restructuring (which the sanctions block) and some minimum level of institutionality that does not exist today, “they explain.
According to Oliveros’ explanation, published on the social network Twitter, the report indicates that if there is no growing economy, the ability of Nicolás Maduro’s government to avoid conflicts in the power coalition is limited, so its situation is unstable. .
“Therefore, to find a stable economic solution, the regime needs to address the main issue: improving electoral conditions, which has been the main demand of the international community for sanctions relief to be granted,” he added. .
On the other hand, he mentions that they do not see Venezuela as someone who can supplant Russia in its oil production because they do not have the capacity at the moment.
“We estimate that the most that Venezuela might add in the short term would be around 200,000 b/d. This impact on the world oil market would be marginal and would have little effect on oil prices. Here Barclays gives its forecast for maximum production ramp-up capacity, Oliveros said.
On the rebound: “The Venezuelan economy might have a statistical rebound this year, but it is a rebound, not a recovery. After losing 80% of its GDP, even growing at 10% per year, it would take 17 years for the GDP to return to be like at the beginning of Maduro’s government”.
– Asdrúbal R. Oliveros (@aroliveros) April 18, 2022
