Since the end of March, you experience a general decline in the price of alternative dollarsmainly the blue dollarbut also financial. On the other hand, the Central Bank (BCRA) is leading the appreciation of the official exchange rate at higher rates than until a few weeks ago, although it is still behind the evolution of inflation.
In this context, the market analyst Rubén Pasquali indicated that “now there are some things that are helping the Government and we don’t know how long they will last. One of these is the revaluation of the real. So far this year it was 12%. This gives it some margin so as not to accelerate the devaluation of the official dollar.. And we must also take into account the issue of the rise in interest rates that the Central Bank is promoting.”
“Martín Guzmán is doing well beyond all the imbalances that we see in the economy with the placement of public debt and the goal (agreed with the IMF) that the Central Bank can only issue 1% of GDP causes less money to be issued. Last year we talked regarding how broadcasting generates inflationtherefore, this is being reduced”, remarked Pasquali in the program What do we do with the pesos (A24).
The calm of the blue dollar
Regarding the issue of the dollar, he said: “Let’s hope that the political noise, which does not help, does not further boost the exchange rate. Since the end of 2017, the financial dollar has risen 11 times, the official 5.5 and inflation has been around.”
“It is true that last year it was delayed, in other words, it rose considerably less than inflation due to an electoral issue. But the reality is that we had three years with inflation rising at half of what the rise of the financiers was. With the officer it’s something else and I think we have to pay attention there. Instruments linked to the official are sought in the market because that cannot be delayed,” he warned.
For Lucas Yatche, Head of Strategy at Liebre Capital, “in the market today the variable is set to inflation. We aim for the inflation rate to run above all variables. That’s why we see a lot of value in the curve CER”.
Recommended local actions
In regards to building of investment portfolios in this context, in What We Do with the Pesos (A24) they presented a list of local actions and the reasons for each choice.
“Last year, the local stock market, following the CER-adjusted bonds, was one of the best investments. But the Merval is slow. It is approaching 500 dollars,” Pasquali stressed.
“With a medium-term vision and having to choose three actions, my choice is the following,” said the market analyst.
ByMA: There is a very low cash dividend payment proposal. And a 200% stock dividend. Besides, It has a significant investment in foreign assets, in US Treasury bonds.
PAMPA: It is one of the largest exponents of energy in the country. The number of wind farms is increasing. The last quarter, oil and gas production turned a balance and ended 2021 with a very good result. The expectations for the future are promising because it is a sector that is benefiting from this international context. It’s the best we have.
IRSA: The owners of the company are buying back shares and this is a good sign. Starting March 23 they approved a $1 billion program to invest in the company’s stock because they say it is undervalued.
For his part, and pointing to a positive scenario for the equity segment, Yatche highlights the well-diversified financial sector with assets such as Banco Macro, Galicia and Supervielle.
International Action Recommendations
At an international level, in What We Do with Pesos (A24) the following firms are listed:
CHEVRON: It is one of the companies with the highest divided yield. It’s also in Warren Buffet’s portfolio.
PFIZER: It has been growing a lot. He has to recover a lot. She was buying companies. It is a year where we have to look at value stocks.
TERNIUM: I think it is out of price. And it is also closely related to post-war reconstruction.
Short and medium term bonds
Whether for investments in pesos or for those who prefer to do so in dollars, in What We Do with Pesos (A24), the Head of Strategy of Liebre Capital put together a list of bonds and negotiable obligations chosen according to the investment term.
The acceleration of inflation and the expectations that it will continue at very high levels promoted the recommendation to incorporate indexed securities portfolios
In this sense, Yatche indicated that “where I see a lot of value is in fixed income, in curve CER. It is very difficult to compete with these assets for el high level of performance”.
Depending on the level of risk to which you want to expose, the following chart highlights the chosen assets:
“For those who want to invest in dollars, we see a improvement in the yields of the negotiable obligations“, highlighted Yatche. Punctually, they stand out in the short term Cresud and a little longer to Genneia.
