The following approach is formulated surrounded by caveats and caveats. On the one hand, when it comes to estimating collective behavior, the issue involves a high degree of uncertainty. On the other hand, keep in mind John Kenneth Galbraith’s warning that forecasting economists give astrologers a bad name. Rather than trying to make predictions, some reflections are offered that can place in context the measurement of political forces that will take place in May and June, in the event that a second round is required.
According to opinion polls and the criteria of various qualified analysts, current Colombian politics can be summarized in the answers to the following questions. When asked if there is a possibility that the authoritarian left wins the presidential election, the answer is yes. He had never been so close to reaching power through elections. To the question of whether this eventual triumph might be considered as a fact, the answer would be not necessarily. In other words, the die would not be cast. The country appears to be approaching a close competition, the outcome of which remains to be determined.
Regarding the first question, the authoritarian left has several factors in its favor. As the group that has been in the opposition since the beginning of the Government, it has been able to capitalize on fatigue due to the restrictions caused by the pandemic, social protest and disagreement with government management.
Because it is the most radical alternative proposal to the current economic system, it can capture anti-system votes. The combined effect of these factors constitutes a tailwind that explains the affirmative answer to the question. But there are also strong winds in the opposite direction. That explains the answer to the second question. The authoritarian left has to carry a burden that cannot be undone: the affinity with violence, the image of Hugo Chávez, the closeness with the regime of Nicolás Maduro and the association with the FARC, the ELN and the violation of human rights. humans. For this reason, some consider that the candidate of the authoritarian left would need to win the presidential election in the first round, which does not seem likely.
Vladimir Putin has left the authoritarian left in an awkward position. The invasion of Ukraine has highlighted the need to defend liberal democracy. He has helped to assess the country’s economic and political ties with North America and the European Union as well as security ties with NATO. Colombia identifies with the West.
For the rest, the country shows no signs of preparing for an institutional collapse. The economic reactivation is consolidated. The peso has strengthened. In short, what can be stated with some degree of certainty is that the coming weeks in Colombia will be interesting.