The 10-year Treasury bond yield spread between China and the United States inverted for the first time since July 2010 on Monday (11th).
According to Wind data, the 10-year Treasury bond yield in the interbank bond market traded at 2.75%-2.76% on Monday morning, Beijing time. During the same period, the 10-year Treasury bond yield in the U.S. bond market reached the highest transaction rate of 2.79%, and the spread between the two was once inverted. .
Some institutions have suggested that in the context of the dislocation of the Sino-US economic and policy cycles, the subsequent inversion of the Sino-US interest rate gap may continue and may further intensify.
Recently, the Sino-US interest rate gap has narrowed rapidly and even inverted, the direct reason is that the US bond yield rate continues to rise rapidly.
early March,10-Year U.S. Treasury YieldStill around 1.7%, now it’s more than 2.7%. It has risen by nearly 100 basis points in just over a month.
On Friday (8th), the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 2.72%, the first time since March 2019 that it rose above 2.7%. U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise across the board on Monday. Wind data showed that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose by nearly 8 basis points in early trading on Monday, reaching as high as 2.787%.
Since March, the yield rate of Chinese government bonds has been relatively stable, and has been lower for a while amid small fluctuations. China’s 10-year government bond yield was 2.75 percent as of Friday, compared with around 2.8 percent in early March. As of 4:00 p.m. Beijing time on Monday, the 10-year government bond yield was trading at 2.77%.
The last time the China-US 10-year bond yield spread inverted was in June 2010.
According to statistics, from 2011 to 2021, the 10-year bond spread between China and the United States will be as low as 19 basis points and as high as 249 basis points, with an average of 134 basis points.