Like every weekend, Martín Guzmán visited the President this morning at Quinta de Olivos. But this is not just any Sunday: it is the calm before the storm. Due to inflation -prior to the publication of the data of the consumer price index (CPI) for March, next Wednesday-, the economist received the biggest Christian attack in the week since he is part of the Government. Well, everything will get worse.
As the officials from the Energy area linked to Cristina Kirchner -Federico Basualdo and Darío Martínez- had previously done, this week it was the Secretary of Domestic Trade, Roberto Feletti, who targeted Guzmán for the price increases. However, according to official sources, the Minister of Economy still maintains the support of the President to continue afloat in his position. “They hold it, but clearly it is the strongest of the attacks, “ they ratified THE NATION commenting on Feletti’s statements.
In the Ministry of Economy they know that there are factions that want the head of the minister, some for ideological reasons and others to add spaces of power. From those powerhouses of the ruling party, came the versions of his possible removal on Friday night, while Guzmán met with his counterpart from Brazil, Paulo Guedes.
The objectives in the hardest Christianity are two. On the one hand, get rid of the devilish number of inflation, which will be between 5% and 7% (it can exceed Mauricio Macri’s worst records, but without a jump in the exchange rate), and on the other, foist it on Guzmán, a protégé of Alberto Fernández (therefore, an enemy) in a key chair, when an official internal intensifies in which only political capital matters for 2023.
The guided missiles towards the head of the Feletti Treasury Palace are a reflex action similar to that of Cristina Kirchner’s letter at the end of 2020, when the blue dollar was just approaching $200. That hot mango fell on a Guzmán who had not yet fallen into disgrace for wanting to take charge of the energy button panel.
Guzmán tried to re-weave a relationship with the vice president in the framework of the negotiation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but to no avail. The ballot boxes, the votes lost in 2021 and those won (by the Left Front) now put them on opposite sides in the race for political-electoral survival.
Those who closely follow Guzmán defend him from attacks. He sent 16 projects to Congress and all 16 were approved. Private debt was restructured and an agreement was reached with the IMF. A bridge of time was achieved to be able to renegotiate the liability with the Paris Club. Now, they say, it has been possible to lower the gas import bill for the winter with negotiations that the minister began with Bolivia and ended in São Paulo and Brasilia.
Despite having to “recalibrate” general policies or indicators, the first quarterly review of the Extended Facilities Program (EFF) with the international organization chaired by Kristalina Georgieva would be approved. With that approval, more dollars would arrive for the reserves of the Central Bank (fundamental to sustain the economy). Despite the vice-presidential wishes, in the United States they do not see a renegotiation possible.
The minister himself made it clear that the official plan exists and is part of that program with the Fund. “With the agreement with the IMF, we have a possibility of greater certainty and security for macrofinancial conditions,” he told Brazilian businessmen Friday morning at the powerful Federation of Industries of the State of São Paulo (Fiesp). According to specialists, in fiscal matters, Guzmán has already ensured compliance with 80% of the quarterly goal agreed with the Fund.
“We didn’t have credit in pesos and now we have it, we have positive net financing in pesos. That is one of the main reasons why the monetary issue of the Central Bank (BCRA) to the Treasury is decreasing so much now. In 2020 it was 7.3% of GDP and in 2021, 3.7%; in the first quarter of 2022 it was approximately 0.15% of GDP. That is very important for macroeconomic stability, exchange rate stability, and to address the problem of inflation,” he stated.
For Albertism this is called “rational heterodoxy”; for Kichnerism it is an orthodox adjustment. And it is this supposed adjustment, especially in the province of Buenos Aires, that worries us in the face of 2023. “We are preparing ourselves to face any attempt to reduce remittances to the province, because that would imply affecting even more sectors of the population that today they are already suffering,” Axel Kicillof said last week. The territory of Buenos Aires was the one on which Christianity might retreat in times of crisis. Already seen.
In the midst of the stormy advance, there is the economy. Close to the minister, they assure that he seeks to improve the expectations of private actors. We worked on that with the CGT and the UIA. But they know that it is impossible to give a horizon in the midst of an internal politics of such magnitude. “No one can lower inflation alone”, they say. Neither Guzmán, nor Miguel Pesce (president of the BCRA) nor Feletti. It is the work of a government that advances towards a defined horizon. Today that horizon is foggy. In fact, for this Wednesday, the economic prognosis is one: the hail is coming.
