Emmanuel Macron arrived Sunday at the head of the first round of the French presidential election according to the first estimates, ahead of a few points the leader of the far right Marine Le Pen whom he will face on April 24 in a duel which promises to be tight. .
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According to three estimates from different institutes, the outgoing president comes first with scores between 28.6 and 29.7%, at the end of a campaign greatly disrupted by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
Marine Le Pen comes second, between 23.5 and 24.7% according to estimates by the Opinionway, Ifop and Harris institutes, ahead of the leader of the radical left Jean-Luc Mélenchon who oscillates between 19.8% and 20.5%.
Abstention is particularly high, between 26.2% and 29.1% according to two estimates, marking the growing disdain of the French vis-à-vis their political class. This is more than the 22.2% of 2017, while the record is 28.4% in 2002.
Marine Le Pen, who was defeated by Emmanuel Macron in 2017, has never seemed so close to victory according to polls taken before the election which show her losing by very little, within the margin of error.
But she seems to have a relatively low reserve of votes for the second round in view of the score estimates of the other far-right candidate Eric Zemmour (between 6.8% and 7%).
A victory for Mrs. Le Pen might have important international consequences, given her positions hostile to European integration and her desire, for example, to leave NATO’s integrated command.
His election would create a double first: first accession to power by the ballot boxes of the far right and first woman president.
A key moment of the two weeks of the new campaign which begins will be April 20 during the traditional televised debate between the two rounds.
In 2017, the phenomenon Emmanuel Macron dynamiting the left and the right from the center, had clearly dominated Marine Le Pen.
In 2022, the daughter of the former and sulphurous tribune Jean-Marie Le Pen, who had been the first to lead the far right in the second round in 2002, seems much better prepared.
She led a field campaign, focused on purchasing power, the main concern of voters, while Emmanuel Macron, monopolized by the war in Ukraine and perhaps too confident by the polls, was little involved. in this first round.
The electoral campaign was unprecedented, as it was completely disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic and by the war.
Confused or tired, many French people abstained or hesitated until the last moment before choosing their candidate among the twelve contenders.
