As for the electoral lists that have seen the light following a brief extension witnessed by the meetings of political forces and parties on the two fronts of power with its axes and the opposition, the battle is at its most intense between Hezbollah and its allies on the one hand and the Progressive Socialist Party and the forces on the other hand, knowing that Hezbollah does not care regarding the lists of the forces of change in the south and the Bekaa Al-Shamali in particular, and its officials are satisfied with the fragmentation of the ranks of these forces and their divisions, which are due to conflicting interests and visions away from the unified program, knowing that all political parties suffer from a decline in their popularity within their sects, which will be reflected on election day. The study centers suggest that the voter turnout was less than the percentage that was fixed in all the electoral elections, with the loss of the excuses that the parties used in the previous elections to garner the largest possible number of votes, in addition to the difficult general situation in life, cash and money..
The paradox of the May 15 entitlement lies in the abstention of a large part of the Sunni public from participating in the polls, following Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s decision to suspend political work and not run in the elections and Prime Minister Najib Mikati’s decision to refrain from running. All of this created restlessness in the Sunni street, especially with the failure of the Sunni forces calculated on March 14 to put their cards in order and form unified lists. He highlighted an increase in the number of regulations, especially in Beirut II and Tripoli, under the title of confronting Iranian influence.
According to International Information, “the largest number of lists was registered in the second North District, 11 lists with 100 candidates, followed by Beirut II with 10 lists, then Akkar and Zahle with 8 lists, while the lowest number was in the third South District and amounted to 3 lists, while in the 2018 elections witnessed Beirut II has the largest number of lists, reaching 9, followed by the second North with 8 lists, while the Third South witnessed 6 lists. Therefore, the size of the discrepancies and disagreements will be a major motive for the Sunni voter to withdraw from the polls.
Here, sources affiliated with the Future Movement indicate to “Lebanon 24” that “the Sunni boycott will not be effective. The irony is that the upcoming elections will produce an “Islamist bloc” that will include deputies from the Islamic Group and Al-Ahbash, not to mention that Prime Minister Hariri will not be far from Parliament. 2022 which will include a block that will be calculated one way or another“.
Accordingly, the same sources say, the Sunnis will not be excluded from the political equation in the country, no matter how the board of the balance of power in Parliament changes. And the parliamentary elections, which some think that postponing them is in the interest of the Sunni community, which is contesting the May elections with shaky confidence, will inevitably happen. Failure to hold it will be followed by the resignations of more than one bloc, which will topple Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, and this hypothesis is what pressured the Shiite duo to adhere to and strictness in holding the elections on time, as a fateful entitlement. The party is fighting to ensure a majority in parliament, but it realizes that it cannot rule alone, no matter how the numbers change in parliament.
In the midst of conflicting positions regarding the post-parliamentary elections scene related to the formation of the government and the presidential elections, the same sources say that the return of Saudi Ambassador Walid al-Bukhari to Lebanon regarding a month before the parliamentary elections bears political implications linked to Riyadh’s reconsideration of the policy of evacuating the Lebanese arena to Tehran, which imposes Re-focusing on the Lebanese file, with the adoption of some flexibility, which appeared formally in the past few days, by talking regarding the return of Gulf diplomats to Lebanon, which has not officially been informed of this matter until now. Hence, the same sources say that Saudi Arabia’s return to Lebanon will be through Syria alone, and this will not appear before the date of the presidential elections, considering that any new agreement between the Lebanese, similar to the Taif Agreement, will be mediated by Syria and Saudi Arabia with the support of European and Western countries, especially since the normalization contacts between The Syrian and Saudi parties are in full swing, linked to all international and regional developments. It should be noted that the Syrian-Emirati-Saudi rapprochement is offset by strong relations between Iran and Qatar, which considers itself a weighty egg between the West and the Islamic Republic, which will emerge victorious from the Vienna negotiations. Washington needs to agree with it on several files in the region, according to what Iranian officials confirm..
