Three new scenarios on the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in the world have been unveiled by the WHO. The optimistic, worst and most likely. The experts that “Le Matin” contacted adhere to these scenarios and predict that the year 2022 will mark the end of the pandemic or at least its acute phase.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has unveiled a new strategic plan to fight Covid-19, containing three possible scenarios for the evolution of the pandemic in 2022. According to the Organization, the most likely scenario is that the virus continues to evolve, but the severity of the disease it causes decreases over time as immunity increases due to vaccination and infection.
The second scenario, the most optimistic, foresees the appearance of new, less severe variants. The latter would be a blessing for the evolution of the epidemic since even vaccines and booster doses would no longer be necessary. Finally, in its last scenario, the worst, the WHO predicts the emergence of new, more dangerous and more virulent variants. This risks resetting epidemic counters and might trigger a global recession once more.
For Mouad Mrabet, coordinator of the National Center for Public Health Emergency Operations of the Ministry of Health, none of the three scenarios is to be ruled out. “The three scenarios do not concern one geographical area without the other, which means that these scenarios also concern our country. But as indicated by the WHO, the most probable is that Sars-CoV-2 will continue to circulate in the form of waves and periods of intervades, but with a less severe form of the disease, thanks to the development of the Vaccine and natural immunity”, he declares to the “Matin”.
The official also called for vigilance, in order to preserve the current epidemiological situation, through the adoption of two essential measures, namely compliance with barrier measures, in particular the wearing of masks in gathering places and closed places, and booster vaccination of the particularly vulnerable population.
Population immunity
For his part, Tayeb Hamdi, doctor, researcher in policies and health systems, assured, in a statement to the “Morning”, that he fully adheres to the scenarios mentioned by the WHO. “These scenarios join those that I had written in a paper published at the end of December 2021 for the evolution of the pandemic during this year. I was talking regarding a scenario where new, more dangerous variants might emerge, calling into question the evolution of the pandemic. But while this scenario is still theoretically possible, it is highly unlikely. The two other WHO scenarios also resemble those I had projected, except that they are more suited to the knowledge we currently have regarding the Omicron variant,” says the doctor.
“The most likely scenario for the world and for Morocco is that the virus will still exist endemic and that the severity of Covid-19 will continue to decline. Morocco has developed population immunity and even on an individual level, the majority of citizens are immune either through vaccination or prior infection. Vaccination boosters will therefore only be necessary for vulnerable people,” said Dr. Hamdi. The latter predicts that the year 2022 will mark the end of the pandemic or at least its acute phase.