Por little attention is paid to the prevailing economic dynamics, it is quite easy to see that the executive’s ambitions in terms of job creation are disproportionate to the economic reality. At the end of its last Board meeting held recently, Bank Al-Maghrib revised its growth forecasts downwards by adapting them to new national and international circumstances.
The Central Bank is now counting on a growth rate of less than 1% of GDP (0.7% of GDP). This revision calls for reflection on the impact of the contraction in growth on the unemployment rate. As a reminder, this peaked at 12.3% in 2021. And this, despite a substantial growth rate of 7.3% of GDP over the last year. Asked regarding the dynamics of the job market, which is largely dependent on economic activity, the economist Azeddine Akesbi first recalls that the crisis linked to the pandemic was at the origin of the destruction of the equivalent of three years job creation in Morocco.
“You should know that until then, sectors that provide jobs and are part of the tourism ecosystem (which is struggling to regain its pre-crisis level of activity), are struggling to restart. As a result, these branches relegate recruitment to the background”, he explains. Our interlocutor, who describes the Central Bank’s forecasts as optimistic, does not rule out the hypothesis of a zero or even negative growth rate for 2022. A particularly difficult year for the national economy due to the accumulation a host of unfavorable factors (drought, inflation, rising input costs for businesses, loss of purchasing power, deterioration of public accounts, etc.).
“Statistics prove that a point of growth generates between 28,000 and 32,000 jobs in Morocco. However, with almost zero growth that the country should record this year, it is not exaggerated to expect a very high unemployment rate for 2022. Knowing that the level of unemployment has always been underestimated in Morocco. More than a million working people are in a situation of underemployment which, in reality, is a form of disguised unemployment., says the economist. Moreover, the prevailing drought is particularly harmful for job creation. As a reminder, according to the DEPF, the agricultural sector provides jobs for a large segment of the population.
Agriculture represents 38% of the employed working population. This being recalled, for the current agricultural campaign, it must be admitted that the rainfall deficit paves the way for a massive destruction of agricultural jobs. Moreover, the Central Bank is counting on a very modest cereal production of nearly 25 million quintals ( once morest 103 million quintals in 2021).
The dead end?
In times of crisis and great adversity, the State must take over to play the role of engine of the economic fabric. This can take the form of massive investments in major infrastructure projects that generate jobs. However, in Akesbi’s opinion, the government’s budgetary room for maneuver has been considerably reduced by the pandemic. The Executive would have its hands tied by a record level of debt and a public deficit which should not be below 6% of GDP for the year in 2022. In the register of solutions going in the direction of revitalizing the market of employment for the current year, Azeddine Akesbi urges the government to multiply the measures likely to boost the activity of tourism professions and that of other branches related to it.
“Requiring the PCR test for foreign tourists at airports while other countries are lifting pandemic restrictions is an inappropriate practice in a context where tourism needs to quickly reach its level of activity. before crisis“, observes our interlocutor. In the end, many objective elements contribute to the existence of mass unemployment for this year. Industry, which is one of the main sectors providing stable jobs in Morocco, has to face a major constraint, that of soaring input prices.
