Prior to the Russian war on Ukraine, the United States repeatedly emphasized that the diplomatic option remained to avoid a war in Ukraine, but diplomatic efforts did not succeed in deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin, who ignited on the 24th of last February a war that killed thousands and displaced more than Three million Ukrainians so far.
While the Western countries, NATO in particular, seek to help Ukraine militarily and humanitarianly and put pressure on Moscow economically in the first place, the Russian forces continue to invade and bomb Ukrainian cities, which means that the “unprecedented” Western sanctions have not yet succeeded in forcing the Russians to retreat.
With NATO warning of sparking a third world war by entering into a direct confrontation with Russia, can Washington consider resorting to “compromise” or “compromise” over Putin’s demands, to end the war?
“It depends on two factors: first, if Putin wants a settlement and that he hasn’t done yet, and second, if the Ukrainians take the lead in negotiations, which they are trying to do without success so far,” says Professor of International Relations at the University of Washington, William Lawrence for “Al Hurra”.
No to Putin
Lawrence adds, “We know what issues the Russians are interested in. They have a problem with NATO and NATO expansion. They have a problem with the locations of NATO weapons. Putin has a problem with the government in Kyiv regarding the relationship with Moscow in light of what he sees as Russia’s strategic interests in neighboring countries.” .
Lawrence continues that many of these issues were discussed in private and public meetings, and might have been resolved before the war, but “the problem is that once Putin invaded Ukraine and killed thousands of civilians, he made it difficult to reach a settlement.”
However, he added, “But a settlement is still possible if Ukraine takes the initiative and Russia fulfills its obligations, and the United States and Europe continue to maintain NATO’s unity.”
On the other hand, Hassan Mneimneh, a professor at the Middle East Institute in Washington, believes that the United States “believes that Putin should not be rewarded for his adventure in Ukraine, and this compromise may not be an option for the United States.”
Mneimneh explained in an interview with Al-Hurra that “the West and the United States want to punish Russia, and the continuation of this matter is closely related to the extent of Ukraine’s steadfastness and leadership in the face of Russian forces.”
He asserts that “the United States is not looking for any way to bargain or compromise with Putin, and that this decision is not among its options to confront Russia.”
According to an analysis published by the magazine Foreign Affairs The “compromise” with President Putin may be the best option for Washington.
He noted that seeking a negotiated settlement would hinder any potential Russian victory in the long run.
He stated that the statements made by US President Joe Biden, last Saturday, during his recent visit to Europe, reflect that “the United States gives priority to punishing Putin.”
Objectives and priorities
The analysis explains that the US administration must define two types of goals: the first in the short term, by depriving Putin of winning his battles on the ground and avoiding the escalation of the conflict, and the second in the long term, reshaping Russian behavior and reducing its risks to the geopolitical interests of the United States and reducing the possibility of a regional conflict in the future. .
He asserts that it is difficult for “Washington to achieve its short or long-term goals if the war continues for many months”, and although “reaching a compromise with Putin following the massacre that is causing is a despicable matter,” the United States must “work to secure a settlement.” negotiating conflict sooner rather than later.”
The writer and political analyst, Ilan Berman, believes that the focus in the Ukrainian crisis is on “de-escalation,” and that the United States and Europe have two priorities: “Preventing the expansion of the conflict so that it does not reach the stage of using weapons of mass destruction, and reaching political solutions that allow Putin to save face, while preserving the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine.
He added, in response to Al-Hurra website’s inquiries, that Putin’s regime began to see some loopholes, if there was “a kind of discontent in the army, and the increasing despair among the Russian oligarchs who do not have access to their money.”
Berman asserts that “Moscow greatly miscalculated in its planning and execution of the invasion of Ukraine, and it did not have the manpower for a long-term military campaign.”
The analysis adds that “if Putin achieves peace on his terms, this will constitute a major strategic setback for the United States,” noting that the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of “direct confrontation between Russia and the United States and its Western allies, who collectively own more than 90 percent of the world’s nuclear weapons.” .
reluctantly accept
Mneimneh believes that the only case in which the United States may “reluctantly accept a compromise” is if Ukraine decides to acquiesce and concede to Putin’s demands.
He pointed out that Russia’s aggression on Ukraine will have “heavy long-term political and economic consequences for Moscow, but the West is dealing with great caution so that it does not enter into the vortex of a third world war.”
It is likely that “Western sanctions once morest Russia will continue, especially in light of Washington’s agreement with European countries, and Russia will be subjected to long-term pressures.”
Lawrence, a professor of international relations, believes that “neither Moscow nor Kyiv is ready for a deal or a settlement between them.”
He stated that “the international sanctions once morest Russia so far have not made Moscow to the point where it pushes it to make deals, and that is why these sanctions must continue to influence Russia,” adding that any deal that Western countries can conclude with Russia needs elements that include “military pressure on Putin.” The continuation of economic sanctions, and the alliance of the international community to deal with Russia.”
Lawrence called on NATO to do more to put pressure on Russia, whether on the ground, in the air, or even at sea or space.
The analysis of “Foreign Affairs” warned that the main challenge is “that the Ukrainian resistance is unlikely to overcome Russia’s military advantages, or to overthrow Putin, which may mean continuing a long and arduous war that Russia is likely to win.”
He pointed out that the difficulties Russia is facing in Ukraine so far does not mean that “it will lose the war,” but Moscow has changed its goals by inflicting more pain and suffering on Ukraine in an attempt to force Kyiv to accept its peace terms, including the recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent states.
The analysis calls for Washington’s participation with European countries in order to force Russia to abandon its extremist demands in exchange for reducing some sanctions, pointing to the importance of this option despite the difficulty of taking it from Washington, especially since this matter would mean “reducing the pressure exerted on Putin.”
On Wednesday, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that from Thursday its forces would observe a ceasefire in Mariupol to make way for the evacuation of civilians from the besieged Ukrainian city.
Moscow, which says it wants to focus on the Donbass region, where the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk are located, has vowed to “drastically reduce its military activity in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv” in the north of the country, according to an AFP report.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Wednesday that he does not believe Russia’s pledges to reduce its military operations in his country, noting that his forces are preparing to fight new battles in the east of the country.
“We do not believe anyone, not even one beautiful phrase,” Zelensky said in a video message, noting that Russian forces are redeploying to attack the eastern Donbass region.
