Experts believe that various domestic consumer markets are capable of responding to various risks and challenges——
my country’s important livelihood commodities have sufficient quantities and stable prices
At present, affected by factors such as the new crown pneumonia epidemic and regional conflicts, the global commodity prices continue to rise, and some people are worried that the supply of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, vegetables and fruits in my country is tight. Many industry experts believe that my country’s important livelihood commodities are in sufficient quantities and prices are stable, and various consumer markets are capable of responding to various risks and challenges.
Food prices rise steadily
“my country’s rations are safe,” said Zhong Yu, director and researcher of the Industrial Office of the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Grain prices in the international market have risen sharply this year, and many countries have successively announced restrictions on wheat exports, further driving up international wheat prices. Compared with the international market, my country’s grain prices rose steadily. Zhong Yu believes that the reason why my country’s grain price increase is milder than that of the international market is that my country’s self-sufficiency rate of grain rations has generally remained above 95%. Although some rations need to be imported, it is not because there is a gap between supply and demand, but for variety adjustment.
my country attaches great importance to food production. Recently, the central government issued a fund of 20 billion yuan to provide a one-time subsidy to farmers who actually grow grain. Since February, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has dispatched working groups to the main winter wheat-producing provinces to go deep into the fields to check the situation of seedlings, moisture, diseases and insect pests, and guide various regions to start early spring field management. In general, my country is basically self-sufficient in grains and has guaranteed food rations.
Li Songlin, an analyst with the oil market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said that the supply of edible vegetable oil in my country is guaranteed, and the price is expected to fall steadily.
According to the monitoring by the oil market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs: Since March 3, the ex-factory prices of domestic first-class soybean oil and sunflower oil have stopped rising and fallen; since March 10, the prices of various vegetable oil products have dropped significantly.
Domestic rapeseed will be available in late May. According to monitoring, the planting area of rapeseed in autumn and winter last year increased by regarding 5 million mu compared with 2019. The current growth is good, and the output is expected to increase compared with the previous year. In the medium and long term, the domestic supply of edible vegetable oil is guaranteed.
Sufficient supply of meat and milk
“The nationwide supply of live pigs is sufficient, and prices have fallen for 16 consecutive weeks,” said Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of 500 county fairs and collection points across the country shows that in the fourth week of March this year, the national average price of pork per kilogram was 22.38 yuan, down 1.2% month-on-month and down 49.2% year-on-year.
A few days ago, the central and local governments have fully launched pork purchases and storage. On March 22, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a department coordination meeting, requiring all localities to strengthen information monitoring and early warning of the entire pig industry chain, actively guide financial institutions to increase credit policy support, stabilize long-term support policies such as breeding land and environmental protection, and accurately implement live pigs. Production capacity regulation and frozen pork purchase and storage regulation, continue to do a good job in the normalized prevention and control of African swine fever, promote the stable and healthy development of live pig production, and help farm households tide over the difficulties.
Under the strong measures taken by the central government and many places, the decline of pork prices may slow down, and it is expected to adjust within a narrow range at a low level, and there is little room for continued decline.
In addition, the egg market is well supplied. Zhu Ning, an associate researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that eggs, as the most market-oriented agricultural product in my country, are basically self-sufficient.
Due to the fact that the inventory of laying hens in the country was at a high level in the same period of history in the early stage, the industry gradually reduced production capacity following that. Judging from the replenishment situation, the number of laying hens in the country will increase steadily, and the market supply of eggs is sufficient.
“my country’s milk supply is sufficient to meet market demand, and there will be no supply problems.” said Zhu Wenqi, an analyst with the milk market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. Last year, my country imported 3.95 million tons of dairy products, an increase of 620,000 tons over the previous year; domestic milk production was 36.83 million tons, an increase of 7.1% over the previous year, both hitting a record high. The decrease in the purchase price of raw milk, on the one hand, is in line with the law of falling prices in the first half of the year;
Vegetable prices tend to fall
“my country’s vegetable supply is sufficient, and prices are shifting to a seasonal decline.” said Zhang Jing, chief analyst of the vegetable market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs.
As the temperature rises, vegetable prices generally enter a seasonal decline period in March each year. This year, affected by the rising prices of oilseeds and agricultural materials and unfavorable weather, the decline in vegetable prices has narrowed significantly compared with the same period of previous years.
According to Zhang Jing’s prediction, the price of vegetables in my country will continue to decline in the later period. From the perspective of supply, in March, the market volume of vegetables in the national vegetable wholesale market increased by 4.2% year-on-year. From the weather point of view, the influence of the cold air in my country in the middle and late March was not strong as a whole, the precipitation in the central and eastern regions increased, and the temperature in most parts of the country was significantly higher, which was more conducive to the production of spring vegetables. As the temperature rises, the market volume of vegetable facilities in the north will further increase, and the greenhouse vegetables in the south will enter the peak growth season, and the overall supply of vegetables in the country will continue to increase. It is expected that following April, the prices of most varieties will enter the seasonal decline range.
The supply of vegetables is sufficient, and the supply of fruits is also guaranteed. “my country’s fruit planting area is large, and the market supply is relatively sufficient.” said Zhao Junye, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Information of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.
Currently, fruit prices are in a seasonal upward channel. The main reason is the lack of green and yellow in the early spring, and cold-stored apples, cold-stored pears and bananas are the main supply forces in the fruit market. In terms of varieties, stocks of apples and pears are relatively low. According to survey statistics, as of the end of February, the stock of apples in cold storage was 6.64 million tons, down 9.4% from the average of the same period in the previous three years, which was at a historically low level; the stock of pears in cold storage was 2.7 million tons, down 12.9% from the same period last year. Seasonal tight supply is the main reason behind the rise in apple and pear prices. Banana-producing areas were affected by the cold wave, reducing supply and increasing prices.
“In the later period, as the seasonal fruits in spring and summer come on the market one following another, the supply of fruit in the market will increase, and the price will be stable with some decline.” Zhao Junye said. (Reporter Huang Junyi)
