Dn a note on the evolution of inflation in Morocco, the High Commission for Planning (HCP) states that the last 20 years have shown a relatively moderate trend in price increases. The consumer price index evolved below the 2.0% bar, except for the years 2002, 2006 and 2008, by 2.8%, 3.3% and 3.9% respectively.
It also shows that the evolution of consumer prices during the period 2010-2021 shows that the indices of most Product Divisions recorded relatively dispersed variations from one another. The largest annual average increases were seen in the Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco Division price level of 4.0% (with 3.5% in 2021). Education price indices experienced average increases of 3.1% (with 1.6% in 2021). While transport recorded average changes of 1.1% during this period (with a record level of 5.9% in 2021).
The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced an average variation of 1.0% (with a level of 0.5% in 2021). On the other hand, communication prices continued their downward trend with an average variation of -3.8% since 2010.
Inflation in the sense of the consumer price index reached its highest level during the month of February 2022, with 3.6% in terms of year-on-year.
This increase is mainly due to the increase in the index of food products by 5.5% and that of non-food products by 2.5%.
With regard to food products, the increase began in January 2021, with rates of 1.8% for oils and fats, to reach double-digit variations with 13.7% in February 2022. The rise in bread and cereal prices has accelerated significantly since September 2021 with 5.0%, to reach 13.2% in February 2022.
For non-food products, the most significant increase was recorded at the level of fuels and lubricants, with successive increases since April 2021. The price of diesel at the pump exceeded the level of 11dh/litre. February’s increase was 22.0% year-on-year.
2022: beginning under the shock of an accelerated rise in inflation
The acceleration experienced by the consumer price index since the beginning of 2022 is mainly due to the rise in the index of food products by 4.9% and that of non-food products by 2. .4%. For food products, the most significant increases concern “oils and fats” with 14.2%, “breads and cereals” with 11.5%, “vegetables” with 4.5% and “meats” with 4. .1%. On the other hand, the prices of “fruits” and “fishes” registered decreases, respectively, of 5.4% and 1.0%. For non-food products, the increase mainly concerned the prices of “fuels”, with 20.1%, and “tobacco”, with 3.5%.
The HCP estimates that in Morocco, the rise in prices should be maintained in 2022 at levels above the average of the last decade. Similarly, external effects and drought should further increase uncertainty regarding inflation at the national level. Inflationary risks would remain uncertain in the short term. The rise in the prices of imported raw materials and the crisis in the Black Sea region, combined with a dizzying rise in barrel prices to around $140/barrel, were likely to maintain the inflation rate during the year. 2022 at relatively high levels.
As for the outlook for price changes on a global scale, during the year 2022, they are likely to be exceptional in both developed and emerging countries. Due to higher oil prices, inflation will be higher and more widespread than expected.
