We would have almost forgotten, this damn Covid-19. spring air, the lifting of restrictions on March 14 and, above all, the general fed up following two years of epidemic offered us the most reckless of cocktails. The sixth wave, in fact, is well and truly in the process of swelling and once once more monopolizes attention diverted for a time by the shots of Russian-Ukrainian guns.
“The epidemic is starting once more”, confirms Professor Philippe Vanhems, epidemiologist at the Hospices Civils de Lyon. The incidence rates are on the rise in each department of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes (read TO KNOW), under the influence of the BA.2 sub-variant of Omicron. Of course, the impressive threshold of 500,000 cases per day reached in January is still a long way off, but the increase in Covid-19 contaminations is significant, with 89,763 cases recorded on Monday in the country, once morest 65,880 the previous Monday ( March 14) and 52,715 the one before (March 7).
Covid-19: the sixth wave remains under control
At a time when many restrictions have fallen, starting with that of the compulsory wearing of a mask, should we be alarmed? “We are facing high incidence rates”admet le Pr Vanhems, “but we no longer analyze thresholds in the same way. During the first waves, a threshold of 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants was considered very worrying.. The situation has changed, and if “we are dealing with a very transmissible Omicron variant, the viral source does not generate the same concerns in terms of severity of cases”.
Hospitals are no longer under tension and the Covid-19 epidemic, for the moment, is under control, as explained by Professor Bruno Lina, also an epidemiologist in Lyon. “There are several factors that are holding back the progression of the virus. More than 80% of the population received two doses of vaccine and regarding 60% the three doses. 20 million people have been infected with Omicron in France. It is enormous. Collective immunity contributes to slowing down the epidemic but it is not sterilizing. As a result, we now find ourselves with an incidence rate of nearly 900 cases/100,000 inhabitants. But if we had experienced such a level of contamination a year ago, we would be in total chaos! »
Covid-19: will the contamination rate continue to increase?
The lifting of the long-awaited barrier measures, however, favors the epidemic recovery. The government, which probably did not expect this rebound, found itself trapped in its promise of relief on March 14. “He would have done better to condition this relief on an acceptable incidence rate, and not on a date”, observes Philippe Vanhems. But the game is over, and nothing suggests, for the moment, a step back and the adoption of new measures, as the country has learned to deal with the epidemic. “This two-year experience of health crisis makes the population much more attentive to public health messages”.
What to make optimistic for the weeks to come? That’s the whole point. According to Professor Bruno Lina, “The contamination rate should continue to increase in the coming weeks in the absence of barrier measures, even if the rise in temperatures should curb the epidemic. The current scenario confirms that we will have to learn to live with the virus. Even if the obligation to wear the mask has been lifted, we must keep the right reflexes and do not hesitate to maintain certain barrier measures such as the mask indoors. Now, we will monitor the hospitalization indicator, hoping that a new variant will not ruin our summer…« .
The epidemic is not behind us, it is obvious. And nothing, as for two years, allows us to observe the future with certainty. Hence the need, in this period of general relaxation, to maintain particularly heightened vigilance.
TO KNOW
As of March 21, the incidence rates in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes amounted to 441 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the Loire, 508/100,000 in Haute-Loire, 545 in Savoie, 560 in the Rhône, 599 in the Drôme, 621 in Isère, 624 in Haute-Savoie, 645 in Ain, 792 in Puy-de-Dôme, 818 in Ardèche, 1032 in Cantal and 1065 in Allier. The average incidence rate in France is 686 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
