In recent days, some countries in Europe, such as Germany, Austria and the United Kingdom, have begun to register a new increase in covid cases.
So far, a sustained increase in the number of deaths from the disease in these places has not yet been observed.
According to experts consulted by BBC News Brazil, two factors may be behind this increaseO: the spread of the BA.2 variant, a “cousin” of the omicron, and the end of the main preventive policies, such as the use of masks in closed places.
Studies carried out in Denmark indicate that this variant BA.2 is 1.5 times more transmissible than ómicron “original” -also known as BA.1-, which, in turn, was already one of the most transmittable variants.
In practice, the BA.2 has become dominant in some of those countries they are now experiencing an increase in cases.
For example, in the United Kingdom it is present in 68.6% of positive samples sequenced in laboratories.
A few weeks ago, the BA.1 was the predominant in these same tests.
The BA.2 also has spread across Asia and is responsible for the absolute record number of cases and deaths recorded in Hong Kong, China and South Korea recently.
In some countries, the end of restrictions seen during the pandemic prompted the advancement of this more transmissible variant.
In many of these places The use of masks is no longer mandatory in closed rooms, massive testing programs have been paralyzed and the recommendation that infected patients remain in isolation has been forgotten.
In some countries the use of masks is no longer mandatory
Difference of opinions
Some experts believe that these measures were abandoned too soon.
Others understand that relax the measures adopted during the pandemic This is reasonable and expected, given the decline in the overall death rate from covid and the wide availability of effective vaccines and treatments.
Especially in the richer nations.
And it is important to remember here that the current increase in cases is not a generalized phenomenon throughout the European continent: Portugal and Spain, for example, continue with downward covid statistics.
According to experts, these data can be explained by the fact that these countries have a kind of “immunological baggage”.
That is, more immunity due to a combination of high vaccination rates among the population and recent waves of covid cases.
This is the opposite scenario to that observed in places like Germany and Austriawhere vaccination did not advance following reaching a certain level and there was no high transmission of the coronavirus in previous months.
But has this new spike in cases already caused a spike in covid deaths?
In European countries, there is currently no sustained increase in deaths.
As cases have recently started to rise, will have to wait a few weeks more to see if this happens (or not).
It is also too early to say whether this situation affecting parts of Europe will be repeated in Brazil: the country is now experiencing a drop in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
It is necessary to observe how the arrival of colder days, lifting preventive measures in various cities and states and the spread of the BA.2 variant will influence this pandemic scenario.
