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All companies have been affected by the pandemic, but few sectors have been as affected as air transport. To the extent that covid-19 has waxed and waned, airlines have suffered thousands of canceled flights, falling ticket prices, and a federal mask mandate that catalyzed a wave of violent incidents in airliners. planes.
Now, when the virus appears to be receding – at least for the time being – travels might enter a new phase once more. What can customers expect?
To answer this question, The Independent spoke with Dr. Sheldon Jacobson, a University of Illinois computer science professor and award-winning airport security expert. Dr. Jacobson sees a wide range of changes ahead.
The masks are over
The most visible change ahead, according to the professor, is that masks will no longer be required on planes.
“At some point, the obligation to wear a mask will disappear completely,” he said.
Last week, the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) announced that the federal mandate for the use of face masks on public transportation would be extended until April 18. During that time, however, the CDC and other agencies plan to “review” the policy.
Whether that means removing the mandate entirely remains to be seen. But judging by the announcement and the very low infection rates across the country in recent weeks, Dr. Jacobson thinks the end is near.
“We have a month to figure things out,” he said. “It is quite possible that some of the airlines will impose it individually… Or impose it on certain routes, depending on the risk associated with them. All of these things are on the table right now.”
Higher ticket prices
One of the few advantages of the pandemic has been unusually low airfares. Dr. Jacobson believes that is regarding to change.
“We’ve been in a buyer’s market for airline tickets for the last two years,” the professor said. “It’s amazing how cheap air travel has become. That can’t continue because the airlines can’t stay solvent with that.”
As the coronavirus subsides, it’s causing fewer and fewer people to get on a plane. And as demand for flights goes up, so will prices.
“When it becomes a seller’s market, there will be a handful of seats on every flight … that are low-priced, and they will advertise them,” explained Dr. Jacobson. “But once they’re taken care of, you’re going to see much, much higher rates.”
A new definition of “frequent flyer”
Another change that Dr. Jacobson predicted is more complex, and has been underway throughout the pandemic. As frequent flyers became less frequent, airlines needed a new way to measure their best customers. The answer, they decided, was simple:
“A frequent flyer is not necessarily someone who flies a lot; he is someone who spends a lot,” Dr. Jacobson commented.
From the airlines’ point of view, the phrase means a customer who has earned “elite status.” These passengers are granted benefits such as free early boarding or free baggage check-in. Until recently, business travelers earned this status by literally flying frequently. The pandemic changed all that.
“Business travelers have been sitting at home doing everything virtually, and they are losing their elite status,” said Dr. Jacobson. “The airlines got it in the last couple of years, and they gave them back doors to get their elite status.”
To open those doors, customers will have to pay.
Fewer flights to small destinations
This evolution of “elite” customers is causing another change, according to Dr. Jacobson: fewer flights to less popular destinations. Hubs like New York and Los Angeles will always have plenty of flights. But smaller, more rural towns will likely be affected.
“What’s going to happen is, in a sense, a widening of the gap between high-value and low-value passengers,” said Dr. Jacobson. “Airlines are also going to rethink their schedules very carefully, because the thought is, well, if we have more travelers, we’re going to have more flights, but if it’s the wrong value passengers, they’re not getting much of a revenue benefit from that.” .
The result, he said, is that fewer planes fly to lesser-known airports.
“In some of the smaller markets, you are going to see fewer options and fewer choices. This is all a kind of evolution,” Dr. Jacobson stressed. “They are going to focus their attention on the places where they get the most revenue.”
