Kuwaiti “alanba”
The conflict between the two presidents, Saad Hariri and Fouad Siniora, is no longer hidden. Rather, it went out into the open, and the elections quickly took place and exploded. It is not an electoral struggle over seats and a bloc, but rather a political struggle over options and future directions, starting with a struggle over the Sunni decision-making and political leadership. What Hariri considers merely a “suspension of participation” in the elections and political life, pending favorable conditions for return, Siniora sees as a dangerous matter that will have rolling repercussions on the Lebanese political balances for years to come, and deepens the imbalance of these balances that have been imbalanced for years, in addition to pushing the Sunni arena towards The boycott and opens its doors in front of Hezbollah’s infiltration and in front of emergency and marginal parties in the sect, and the result is the entry of the Sunni sect into a void, withdrawal and weakness.
Perhaps Hariri made the “third mistake” when he decided to transfer the crisis to the Sunni community and open a confrontation with Siniora, disturbing him and spoiling his plan. This is what is reported by Sunni circles amid fear that this new hidden conflict will deepen the internal crisis, and give preference to the option of a Sunni boycott on a large scale.
As for the first mistake that Hariri made, it was when he decided not to be satisfied with personally abstaining from candidacy, but rather to put the Future Movement – leaders and rules – outside the elections and the popular and political equation. Thus, he would lock the “House of the Future” and put the key in his pocket, and he wanted to block any attempt to inherit his current and win over his audience, in addition to sending a message inside and outside that he is the strongest and represents the Sunni street, and that no one can replace him and fill his void, and that he is the commander The forbidden is in his arena, whether he is in judgment or outside.
The second error, for Hariri, was an error in estimation and calculation. When Hariri called for a comprehensive boycott by candidacy and voting, he thought that this boycott would not be confined to the Future Movement, but would be generalized at the level of the Sunni sect. Preserving his parliamentary bloc and remaining in the equation until the conditions are available for his return and the lifting of restrictions on him, to resume his march from where he left off, but Hariri’s assessment that “there are no elections without the future” was not correct, and there was a rejection of the boycott position and the call for participation in the elections by nomination and voting.. Siniora led this counter-position, and he was the likely factor in giving “Sunni legitimacy or pact” to the elections, and this matter was not accepted by Hariri, but rather he dealt with it negatively, and the explanations and justifications provided by Siniora and his assertion that what he is doing is ultimately in the interest of the Sunnis. And «Hariria» and President Saad Hariri personally.
These circles believe that Hariri’s exit from the electoral political scene was not a coup in the face of the political forces as much as it reverted to the Sunni community and its internal conditions, and led to further erosion in it, and to confusion among the environment and the public and among the owners of the political role, and this reflected a great difficulty in assembling Regulations and the formation of alliances, with the escalation of the clash between Hariri’s group and Siniora, and the push for the latter’s dispossession of any Sunni leverage. This also reflected negatively on the Siniora movement, which is trying to play the role of an alternative reference. The refusal of Siniora to play this role in the Future Movement’s attack on him and his portrayal of him as being outside “political Hariri” was clearly evident, which prompted “future” leaders sympathetic to the latter to remind al-Qaeda that Siniora is “a loyal companion and friend of the late Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and does not present himself as an alternative leader to Saad,” as well as increasing talk of boycotting the elections.
According to Beiruti circles, there are many fundamental obstacles that prevent the Siniora initiative from turning into a lever for the confused Sunni voice, as it suffers from a lack of funds that prevents the management of a battle in 4 districts: Tripoli, Dennyeh, Minieh, Akkar, Second Beirut, West Bekaa Rashaya, and Sidon – Jezzine, and he also does not have the many required to run an electoral machine on this scale, but the most influential problem is the absence of positive interaction on the part of the Future Movement’s audience, which it considers a project of inheriting political freedom, and the confrontation it faces from the Secretary-General of the Future Movement Ahmed Hariri, through contacts He conducts it with all the electoral keys in Beirut, the North, and the Bekaa to urge them to boycott the Siniora project, while the road in front of him was cut off in the Jezzine-Sidon district following he lifted the lid on the candidacy of Youssef Al-Naqeeb and Muhammad Shams Al-Din, whom Siniora is marketing in Sidon.
Siniora’s path does not seem paved to accommodate Hariri’s vacuum, especially since his political discourse does not find the desired echo among the majority in the Future Movement, which considers that those who have wronged Hariri are from inside the house and does not see its battle with opponents, a matter that Bahaa Hariri also faced, who suffers internal and external stumbling, What led to his exit from the circle of political heredity. For this reason, all expectations indicate that the battle to mobilize the Sunni street will not succeed in the absence of the Future Movement’s lever, and the boycott will be the winning horse in the entitlement.
The initiative launched by Siniora appears to be more of an “adventure”, and the challenge before it lies in the ability to re-mobilize the Sunni public to go to the polls massively, as a result of the inadmissibility of vacating the square. This ability to mobilize Hariris and voters will appear through the formation of the list in Beirut, so that the matter will apply to other departments according to the way the battle is managed… However, Hariri’s supporters are confident of his situation and say that developments on the ground confirm that Saad Hariri is still the strongest in the street, and there is great sympathy with him. And that the symbols of the Beirut and Sidonian Sunni families informed Bahaa Hariri and Fouad Siniora of their commitment to Hariri’s decision to boycott the elections. What they fear is that the scenario of the year 1992 will be repeated, when an internal imbalance occurred, the charter collapsed, the rift deepened, and the Petra legislative authority was born due to the boycott of the Christian component, and that the Sunnis would suffer what happened to the Maronites during that period, as a result of removing their most prominent symbol, Saad Hariri from the internal equation and pushing him to leave the internal equation. The country, and this measure was supposed to be met with a comprehensive national rejection and not to repeat the scene of the 92nd, because following the parliamentary elections – if they happen – the country will be facing a major crisis and the birth of a fragile authority due to the Sunni boycott.
