For the overall economy, Hon Hai (2317-TW) The internal research report believes that the chain reaction caused by the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the most extreme situation, will be high inflation, high interest rates,DollarThe rise and the recession of the real economy, but major exporters of energy, raw materials, or manufacturing are expected to be among the few beneficiaries, and Taiwan is one of them.
Hon Hai believes that the impact of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict on the real economy includes raw material disconnection, energy crisis, food shortage, and prices will rise, which will exacerbate hyperinflation, especially as oil prices are close to historical highs, increasing market panic and debt , the foreign exchange market will also be severely impacted.
However, Hon Hai said that under bad circumstances, there will still be a few beneficiary countries, such as the Middle East, Brazil, and Australia, which are exporters of energy and raw materials; manufacturing exporters such as China, Taiwan, and the military industry of the United States will all be the beneficiaries. The foreign exchange market is relatively stable; however, most of the remaining countries will still suffer, especially Eastern European and EU countries, which will be greatly affected due to their geographical relations.
As countries continue to increase sanctions once morest Russia, according to Hon Hai’s analysis, it will lead to a decline in Russia’s economic and technological capabilities, but it will also lead to increases in global chemical, metal, raw material and energy prices, as well as increased shipping costs, and Russia’s ability to resist sanctions has greatly increased. Stronger than before, the possibility of actual default of debt is very low, but it may be technically defaulted, such as canceling the payment of royalties to unfriendly countries, capable of paying but deliberately not paying.
