Madrid, March 13 (EFE).- In 2035, the Spanish population, with fewer and older children, will require a renewed medical staff from the National Health System with fewer pediatricians and more specialists in chronic diseases associated with aging and complex polypathological patients.
This is revealed by the report “Supply-Needs of Medical Specialists 2021-2035”, presented by the Ministry of Health, which notes for the next fifteen years changes in the demand for toilets caused by a drop in the population from 0 to 14 years of age. three points, from 14.3 to 11.3% and a rise, another three points, of those over 75 years of age, from 9.8 to 13%.
This report, carried out by the EcoSalud team of the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, confirms that the specialties with the greatest current deficit coincide with those with the greatest future need.
Thus, according to the study “Simulation model of medical specialists in Spain 2021-2035”, the specialties that currently suffer from the greatest shortage of doctors and that will have to be strengthened in the coming years are: family and community medicine (83.6 %), anesthesiology and resuscitation (76.3%), geriatrics (75%), psychiatry (67.3%) and radiodiagnosis (63%).
On the other hand, with a surplus of resources, clinical analysis and biochemistry (28.8%), cardiovascular surgery (27.8%), internal medicine (27.1%), thoracic surgery (18, 9%) and obstetrics and gynecology (18%).
According to the study, the year 2027 will be a turning point. That year there will be a global deficit of 9,000 doctors, especially due to the lack of specialists in family and community medicine, which is why decisions are made to avoid reaching 2028 in that situation.
FAMILY PHYSICIANS, THE OLDEST SPECIALTY
Family medicine deserves attention. On the demand side, according to the panel of experts, it is a specialty that both now and in the future maintains a “high need” profile.
On the supply side, it is the second oldest specialty, with the highest percentages of professionals aged 60 and over (33%) and 50 and over (60%).
The replacement rate is very fair and the problem is exacerbated because there is a large number of family doctors who choose to practice in the private health sector or in emergency medicine.
According to the authors of the study, in order to cover the places that cannot be filled, mainly in rural areas and small cities, “it is not enough to call for more MIR places or homologate foreign qualifications”.
The report appeals to promote an incentive plan aimed at this specialty in line with other EU countries that have implemented policies to attract and retain professionals to address these imbalances, in rural areas and small and medium-sized cities.
Pediatrics is another specialty that is also having coverage problems in primary care, but the prognosis is different.
According to the study, Spain has opted for a model in primary care centers that requires a much higher ratio of paediatricians than in most of the EU. Young paediatricians very soon cover hospital posts, where practically half of these professionals work, but not primary care.
In the short term, according to the panel of experts, the deficit can be solved with organizational changes “and in the long term, given the demographic projections, the problem will not exist.”
IN THE NEXT YEARS, DOCTORS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BE NEEDED
Among these decisions, the study proposes, in the short term, to increase MIR positions in certain specialties and promote the immigration of doctors trained in other countries.
Physician migrations play an important role in the health system in Spain. In 2021, according to the report, the market response to the need for doctors led to the approval of 4,293 titles. In this sense, Spain has the advantage of being attractive to Latin American doctors, who do not face language barriers.
There are also the migrations of Spanish doctors to other countries that are qualitatively important for what they represent – “investments in human capital whose returns are collected abroad” – but that quantitatively represent a very small number in relation to the total number of annual Medicine graduates.
The study maintains that it is necessary to open a debate both to make the homologation of degrees more flexible and to satisfy the internal demand to enter the Medicine degree, the most demanded of university education in Spain and that currently has a very high ‘numerus clausus’. high, “and with great downward rigidity”.
(c) EFE Agency
