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Is a quick exit from Russian oil and gas possible? ETH experts drew up a calculation for Switzerland. This provides a surprising result.
However, ETH experts agree that the economic upturn in the wake of the Corona crisis would prevent a recession.
AFP/Natalia Kolesnikova
The US is already giving up Russian oil and gas: US President Joe Biden.
AFP / Jim Watson
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In normal times, an exit from Russian oil and gas would trigger a recession, says ETH expert Yngve Abrahamsen.
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The economic upswing following the corona pandemic would help “that we scrape past a recession”.
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Now the pressure on politics is increasing.
An exit from Russian oil and gas would hit the Swiss economy hard: If imports were to be stopped soon, for example as part of a tightening of sanctions once morest Russia, gross domestic product (GDP) would fall by three to four percentage points spread over two years. This is the result of calculations by the Business Cycle Research Center at ETH Zurich “Sunday Newspaper” present. This corresponds to a loss of around CHF 3,000 per Swiss citizen.
According to ETH expert Yngve Abrahamsen, such a slump is “big enough to cause a recession in normal times”. Now, however, the economic upswing in the wake of the Corona crisis might help “that we scrape past a recession”.
Exit would be “feasible”
Nevertheless, Abrahamsen is of the opinion that Switzerland would be “feasible” to withdraw from Russian raw material supplies. He is convinced that part of supplies from Russia might be replaced by other sources. A reduction in strategic reserves might also help in a transitional period.
Switzerland would decide on such an import ban with other European countries. But the opposite might also happen. Vladimir Putin might ban the West from its oil and gas. This would not only affect Switzerland, but also its trading partners and thus also the Swiss economy. The franc would appreciate once morest the euro because the prices for energy and raw materials would rise.
It’s not just experts from Switzerland who come to the conclusion that the phase-out of Russian energy is feasible. Similar results were recently presented in Germany, as the “SonntagsZeitung” continues. This increases the pressure on politicians to consider tougher measures once morest Russia. The European Union even wants to become independent of Russian energy imports within the next five years.
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(chk)