Of the 10,000 COVID-19-related deaths in Korea, 4519, nearly half, have died this year alone, increasing the damage caused by the omicron mutation, which is known to be less virulent than the existing delta mutation.
Korea, which has recorded a low worldwide excess mortality rate for the past two years, is concerned that the number of excess deaths may increase due to the spread of Omicron. Experts advised that the possibility of excess death should be reduced by expanding medical care and prescribing oral medications.
According to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) on the 13th, as of 00:00 on the 12th, the previous day, the number of COVID-19 deaths in Korea recorded a cumulative 10,144. On January 20, 2020, the first patient in Korea was reported, and the number exceeded 10,000 in two years and two months.
If you look at the trend of the death toll over the years, the number of deaths and damages has risen sharply with each pandemic.
On March 16, 2020 (102 people), 56 days following the first report in Korea, the cumulative death toll exceeded 100. On November 20 (501) of the same year, 249 days later, the number exceeded 500, and on January 7 (1007) of last year, 48 days later, in the followingmath of the third epidemic, the number exceeded 1,000, respectively. Then, 350 days later, on December 23rd (5015 people) of last year, the cumulative number exceeded 5,000 due to the increase in the number of elderly confirmed patients following the gradual recovery of daily life.
79 days following the cumulative number exceeded 5,000, the number exceeded 10,000 on the 12th of this month. While it took 703 days for the first 5,000 cases to occur, it took only 79 days for the number of deaths to increase at a similar scale from 5,000 to 10,000.
As of January 1 of this year, it is easy to see how much the number of deaths this year is increasing by comparing the number of deaths over the past two years and over 70 days this year.
From the beginning of 2020 to December 31 of last year (00:00 on January 1 of this year), 5,625 people (55.5%), and from January 1 to 00:00 on the last 12, 4519 people (44.5%) died from Corona 19. Since the first case of Omicron in Korea on December 1 last year, the number of deaths has increased rapidly this year for regarding 70 days.
This shows that even if the omicron mutation has a lower fatality rate than the existing virus or delta mutation, severe and death damage can increase due to the strong spread.
As the peak of the epidemic is expected to continue in the next 1-2 weeks, the death toll is highly likely to continue even following 3-4 weeks.
There are also concerns that the scale of excess deaths due to COVID-19 may increase. Excess death is an indicator of how many more people died from COVID-19 or worsening of underlying diseases caused by infection than expected compared to before the COVID-19 outbreak.
According to a study published in The Lancet by the COVID-19 excess mortality team at the University of Washington in the United States, the domestic excess mortality rate for two years from January 2020 to December 31 last year was 4.4 per 100,000 population. Russia (374.6 people), Brazil (186.9 people), USA (179.3 people), UK (126.8 people), France (124.2 people), Germany (120.5 people), Sweden (91.2 people), Israel (51.0 people), Japan ( 44.1), which is very low.
The period the research team investigated was the period when alpha and delta mutations were prevalent, starting with the virus first discovered in Wuhan, China, in the early stages of the epidemic in Korea. It is analyzed that the ‘3T strategy’ of the quarantine authorities’ test-track-treatment had a significant impact on the low excess mortality rate.
The problem is this year, when the omicron mutation became the dominant species. The damage equivalent to the number of COVID-19 deaths in the past two years has occurred in regarding 70 days this year, and given the current spread, there are concerns that the number of excess deaths will increase as more deaths are expected in the future.
Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital said, “If we calculate the excess death this summer, it will be higher than the calculated value for the past two years. If that happens, the overall excess mortality rate will inevitably increase further,” he said.
Omicron is less likely to die from worsening respiratory disease than existing viruses, but some point out that it is dangerous because the underlying disease it was suffering from might worsen. A typical example is a patient who became infected with COVID-19 following being admitted to a medical institution for treatment of an underlying disease or cancer.
Cheon Eun-mi, a professor of respiratory medicine at Ewha Womans University Mokdong Hospital, said, “If you look at studies in South Africa, etc., the excess mortality rate of Omicron is less than one-fifteenth lower than that of Delta. Although the number of deaths due to Omicron itself is much less, he said, “The number of deaths of patients who do not receive timely hospitalization due to infection in medical institutions and lack of beds may also increase.”
Experts emphasized the need to expand treatment and increase the prescription of oral medications to prevent further increase in excess mortality.
In particular, in the case of oral medications, only 40,111 patients, or 25% of the 163,000 doses introduced, were prescribed, and many pointed out that the government was too passive in using oral medicines.
Professor Kim said, “We need a one-stop treatment system that can prescribe Paxrovid immediately following consultation at a respiratory clinic, etc. and if positive RAT is confirmed on the spot. “The risk of severe exacerbation can be reduced by 89% with the prescription of beads, but it will be difficult to prevent the increase in excess death with the current prescription.”
Professor Cheon said, “Even university hospitals have to go through too many procedures before administering Paxrovid, making it virtually impossible to prescribe. The procedure should be streamlined so that medication can be administered at the right time,” he advised.
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