Source: Nida Al-Watan
Joel Feghali
Fears are growing of the repercussions of the Russian war on Ukraine on the already precarious Lebanese reality, with new and dangerous economic repercussions igniting. Including: the loss of food security, which has mainly begun to decline since the beginning of the economic crisis, the collapse of the dollar, and price inflation. What will be the repercussions of this war on Lebanon? Will those concerned be able to address the problem?
The term food security refers to the availability of food for individuals without any shortage, and its achievement depends on the individual not fearing hunger, or even the possibility of being exposed to it. It is used as a criterion to prevent future food shortages or interruptions due to several factors classified as dangerous, including drought, wars, and other problems that impede the availability of food. So there are three basic elements of food security: the presence of food, food safety and access to it. Lebanon suffers from the third element, as things will get worse with the development of the Russian war on Ukraine, which imposed itself on the whole world. And the Lebanese panicked immediately following the start of the Russian invasion, fearing the rise in prices, because the Lebanese economy is not self-sufficient, but rather depends entirely on imports to secure its basic and secondary needs.
Prices to rise
One of the follow-up sources explains the reasons for the high prices of consumer goods in Lebanon and says:
• “First: The main reason behind the rise in consumer prices is the rise in the price of oil and gas as a result of the war in Ukraine, as their presence is essential in the production and distribution process, and Lebanon still imports a large part of consumer goods in light of the collapse of its productive sectors.
• Second: Ukraine is one of the largest exporters of wheat (the fifth largest country), and together with Russia, it constituted regarding 25 percent of the world’s wheat stock.
• Third: The fact that Lebanon does not have a productive economy despite the large capabilities available in it and the small size of the country, due to the financial and economic policies pursued during the past decades, specifically the policies of support, stabilization of the exchange rate and the encouragement of import instead of production, which made Lebanon vulnerable to any change in prices. Globalism.
A dangerous and miserable reality, between the collapse of the currency, inflation, the loss of purchasing power, the bankruptcy of the state and the lack of productive capacity, the Lebanese people are living in real danger of their inability to provide for their livelihood, and consequently the loss of their food security.
Food security has declined in the face of price frenzy
“At a time when the whole world is preparing to face the shortage of foodstuffs imported from Ukraine and Russia, we see those concerned in Lebanon are still looking for other sources to confront the crisis,” says Samir Abdel-Malik, head of the Fair Trade Association in Lebanon, “but in the end the goods will be secured. Their prices will be very high, and the Lebanese people will bear new burdens that may threaten their food security.”
Lebanese circulated on social media a video showing that a food store was hiding vegetable oil, in order to monopolize it and sell it later at high prices. The head of the Consumer Association-Lebanon, Zuhair Berro, explains regarding the general logic of the Lebanese market, “It does not depend on supply and demand, but on the monopoly, greed and greed of merchants who benefit from the absence of the state and control to raise their prices and hide materials, which generates fear among the Lebanese people, especially because Prices will not come back down later, and therefore we will witness a noticeable decline in the consumption of these commodities, as more than half of the Lebanese people live below the poverty line.”
alternative sources
“In the short term, Lebanon may turn to other exporting countries such as Romania, France and Kazakhstan, but the prices will be very high, which prevents a large part of the Lebanese people from accessing them, in addition to the inability of the Banque du Liban to support them,” says the follow-up source, “As for In the medium and long term, the role of local production in Lebanon must be activated while encouraging local agriculture within an integrated food security plan.”
For his part, Abdul Malik believes that “today is the appropriate time to reconsider the local production, and to reactivate the agricultural and industrial sectors, especially following most of the Lebanese people realized the importance of staying and investing in agricultural lands, not only for speculation, buying and selling, but to participate in the production process and achieve part of the Self-sufficiency”.
Any plans for the future?
According to the follow-up source: “To this day, the political authority in Lebanon is still unable to carry out reform projects, because all it cares regarding is corruption, quotas and sectarianism, despite the existence of many studies, plans and efforts that were put forward before the start of the crisis in 2019.” In turn, Abdul Malik highlights the need to provide assistance to invest in the agricultural sector, as well as motivate farmers to stay on their lands and contribute to the development of local production.
Lebanon has crossed the threshold of choice, and serious work has become necessary. The possibility of developing and enhancing local production in Lebanon exists. Only the political will and desire to work according to the interests of the people, and thus to preserve the most important human right, which is food security, remains.